BTC (Bitcoin) - Moving to 128k or 143k?

Throughout most of 2024, we saw a series of lower highs and lower lows, signaling a downtrend that began after the market peaked in March 2024. This pattern reflected a period of declining confidence and cautious trading. Now, as we enter late 2024 through today, a similar pattern has emerged!

To build confidence in further upside, we need to see a break in structure—essentially, a shift where the market establishes higher highs and higher lows. This would signal a potential trend reversal and indicate that buyers are beginning to take control. It’s important to note, though, that even with a break in structure, this is not a guarantee of sustained upside but rather a signal that conditions are improving.

The Wave 4 Context and Fibonacci Levels
From an Elliott Wave perspective, I believe we are currently in Wave 4 of an impulsive move. So far, the market has found support near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, a level often associated with shallow pullbacks in bullish trends. This support suggests underlying bullish tendencies remain intact.

However, a pullback to the 38.2% retracement level would be a more ideal setup for establishing a stronger base. If this deeper retracement materializes, it could provide a healthier springboard for the next move higher.

Key Price Levels to Watch
If we have indeed bottomed, the next potential move could target $143,000, representing an ambitious upside projection. However, a more conservative and likely target lies at $128,000, which corresponds to the -23.6% Fibonacci extension level. This level would align with a measured and steady continuation of the bullish trend.