BTCUSD What will happen next ?
Updated
A whale purse sold 10.000 BTC yesterday and the price fell dramatically. You can track his activity here:
bitinfocharts.com/en/bitcoin/address/18mkjbVaHAcMauL6iiy7zm9VjMYCjy4UU1
However it was expected that something would happen as soon as Bollinger Bands contracted close to each other. We faced with a dump. The price managed to consolidate a little below Fib 0.786 support level and now it is resistance.
Probably it is the most important week in the BTC history as it is going to break the Triangle which was formed due to the largest crypto market crisis.
If BTC price breaks the Triangle down for a very long time we will have BTC price around $5000
If BTC price breaks the Triangle upward it will quickly recovers to the previous heights.
We think it will manage to go upward from the Triangle and there are several reasons for this:
1. Bullish XABCD pattern has just been formed
2. Stoch RSI and MACD confirms possibilities of growth
3. From the yesterday's dump price consolidated and is growing slowly
However there are still some threats:
1. The price is at the edge of the lower Bollinger line. If it breaks down of it then the trend will be descending again.
2. Red line of ichi cloud is above green line which means there is a strong resistance
3. The price is below Fib 0.786 resistance level
Conclusion:
If the price manages to break Fib 0.786 resistance level which is around $8350 then we will have ascending movement. Combining it with the Bollinger bands indicator means that the price will move from the lower edge to the upper edge of the channel, hence it will head to $11900. This will break the Triangle upward and bring a new wave of growth.
bitinfocharts.com/en/bitcoin/address/18mkjbVaHAcMauL6iiy7zm9VjMYCjy4UU1
However it was expected that something would happen as soon as Bollinger Bands contracted close to each other. We faced with a dump. The price managed to consolidate a little below Fib 0.786 support level and now it is resistance.
Probably it is the most important week in the BTC history as it is going to break the Triangle which was formed due to the largest crypto market crisis.
If BTC price breaks the Triangle down for a very long time we will have BTC price around $5000
If BTC price breaks the Triangle upward it will quickly recovers to the previous heights.
We think it will manage to go upward from the Triangle and there are several reasons for this:
1. Bullish XABCD pattern has just been formed
2. Stoch RSI and MACD confirms possibilities of growth
3. From the yesterday's dump price consolidated and is growing slowly
However there are still some threats:
1. The price is at the edge of the lower Bollinger line. If it breaks down of it then the trend will be descending again.
2. Red line of ichi cloud is above green line which means there is a strong resistance
3. The price is below Fib 0.786 resistance level
Conclusion:
If the price manages to break Fib 0.786 resistance level which is around $8350 then we will have ascending movement. Combining it with the Bollinger bands indicator means that the price will move from the lower edge to the upper edge of the channel, hence it will head to $11900. This will break the Triangle upward and bring a new wave of growth.
Trade active
A FOMO candle that was formed during this night increased the price by 1000 the Triangle was broken upward. We recommend to watch price movement till it consolidates thereNote
Consolidation will be finished after breaking through Fib 0.786 which is around $8350. To reach it there should be significant volume increaseTrade active
Has just broke through Fib 0.786 as we mentioned before the reversal is starting near to the 23th of MarchNote
BTC price perfectly follows our analysis. We expect a small drop which is necessary to consolidate before major run, Stoch RSI is too high and there is not enough volume to break out from ascending wedge pattern.Our tactics is to wait for a dip and go long.
Put stop losses as high as possible. Trades are risky now.
Note
An updated version of the forecast, adjusted to the changesTrade active
From our previous analysis and its updates it was clearly seen that BTC -1.39% went out of the triangle and now is preparing for the next wave of growth. After it was pumped above Fib 0.786 level the price started to consolidate and now it has bounced back from the mentioned Fibonacci level which is now strong support. Nevertheless, uncertainty about BTC -1.39% price movement is going to end only in the beginning of April. Till this moment there are still 2 scenarios: 1. Price continues its bounce and moves higher to the next level around $10 800
2. Volume goes down and bounce stops, the price follows Stoch RSI forecast and moves back to the triangle and decreases till its lower edge around $6 400
Conclusion: BTC -1.39% will obviously grow up and reach new ATH -2.28% in the long term, however in the short term the price may retest 6k level before it starts a new wave of growth
Note
Retest of 6k level has happenedBTC hasn't not consolidated above $7300 resistance level from our previous analysis. There was a BB contraction and a huge sell volume . The price dramatically went down within several hours. The market is still very risky and unstable. However in the long term BTC will grow to new height, in the short term we should carefully consider each our move.
In a short period of time we expect a small decrease and retest of $7100 resistance level . It seems like it won't be broken and the price will move down again. It is still about time for market to recover and we should wait till the next wave of growth.
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