BTC: No New ATH This Year? - Bearish and Bullish Cases Revisited
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Bullish Case (probability = 35%):
- Bitcoin is currently seeing only one major case for being bullish -> Bitcoin would have to negate all probability evidence for breaking out of this rising wedge and continue higher retesting our previous ATH that we witnessed in 2019.
- Bitcoin is currently breaking structure on the smaller time frames (descending wedge 1H, 4H), that may put us back into semi-bullish territory. We can retest the rising parallel channel once more to give the bulls one more chance.
- Although we have broken one of the major legacy trend line for this year, and a minor pullback has not occurred. A final pullback and giving another chance for the bulls to regain traction is the most probable case.
Bearish Case (probability = 65%):
- Bitcoin is currently painting a rising wedge on our weekly timeline. A rising wedge is incredibly bearish and we think this has a higher chance of breaking down, than up (remember, we are talking about PROBABILITIES).
- The market greed and index is still showing a consistent greed, which may be a time to short the market based on contrarian thinking.
- Volume is decreasing and this may indicate that bulls are out of steam, which may give the bears a stronger opportunity to short the market - remember, we never had an option to short the market until AFTER the 2018 crash. Market psychology is completely different prior to 2018.
- Bitcoin is currently printing TWO red candles on the weekly.
Trade Safe.
X Force
Bullish Case (probability = 35%):
- Bitcoin is currently seeing only one major case for being bullish -> Bitcoin would have to negate all probability evidence for breaking out of this rising wedge and continue higher retesting our previous ATH that we witnessed in 2019.
- Bitcoin is currently breaking structure on the smaller time frames (descending wedge 1H, 4H), that may put us back into semi-bullish territory. We can retest the rising parallel channel once more to give the bulls one more chance.
- Although we have broken one of the major legacy trend line for this year, and a minor pullback has not occurred. A final pullback and giving another chance for the bulls to regain traction is the most probable case.
Bearish Case (probability = 65%):
- Bitcoin is currently painting a rising wedge on our weekly timeline. A rising wedge is incredibly bearish and we think this has a higher chance of breaking down, than up (remember, we are talking about PROBABILITIES).
- The market greed and index is still showing a consistent greed, which may be a time to short the market based on contrarian thinking.
- Volume is decreasing and this may indicate that bulls are out of steam, which may give the bears a stronger opportunity to short the market - remember, we never had an option to short the market until AFTER the 2018 crash. Market psychology is completely different prior to 2018.
- Bitcoin is currently printing TWO red candles on the weekly.
Trade Safe.
X Force
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