BitcoinShort
$5,000 by the end of the week. But then what.
Updated
Good morning everyone. Hope everyone is doing well, April is here and spring will be upon us soon. From the looks of the charts it looks like BTC may have seen it's shadow and we have a few more weeks of winter in front of us.
As you look at the chart I have highlighted my wave count of what appears to clearly be a WXY correction. I will be playing this trade as the end of wave 2 and have entered a short at 7,025. It's a safe area to enter from with the downtrend line at my back and if i'm wrong and BTC breaks this downtrend I will be able to exit with out loss.
It appears we are seeing the start of the 3rd wave down forming. Assuming this is the case I would look for wave 3 to terminate around the $5900 area. I will not be making a trade in that zone and look for the 5th wave to end around the $5,000 area and would not be surprised to see it push lower.
Now here is the tricky part. Do we go up from that point or not? I have highlighted what I expect on the right hand of the chart. We could see one of two things. If BTC pushes off the low at $5,000 and forms a corrective wave then we will have an X wave and then fall into a Z with an ABC again. That would take us down to the $2,000 area. If we see BTC form an impulsive wave off the low at $5,000 then this correction is over and the bull market resumes.
As always these are my ideas for my trades and should not be taken as advice for your trading strategies. Prosperous trading everyone.
An feedback is always welcome, thanks for taking a look.
As you look at the chart I have highlighted my wave count of what appears to clearly be a WXY correction. I will be playing this trade as the end of wave 2 and have entered a short at 7,025. It's a safe area to enter from with the downtrend line at my back and if i'm wrong and BTC breaks this downtrend I will be able to exit with out loss.
It appears we are seeing the start of the 3rd wave down forming. Assuming this is the case I would look for wave 3 to terminate around the $5900 area. I will not be making a trade in that zone and look for the 5th wave to end around the $5,000 area and would not be surprised to see it push lower.
Now here is the tricky part. Do we go up from that point or not? I have highlighted what I expect on the right hand of the chart. We could see one of two things. If BTC pushes off the low at $5,000 and forms a corrective wave then we will have an X wave and then fall into a Z with an ABC again. That would take us down to the $2,000 area. If we see BTC form an impulsive wave off the low at $5,000 then this correction is over and the bull market resumes.
As always these are my ideas for my trades and should not be taken as advice for your trading strategies. Prosperous trading everyone.
An feedback is always welcome, thanks for taking a look.
Note
This formation is looking like its going to move higher, I have tightened my stops and i'm expecting if we see a break up to stop around the 7150-7250 area. If that's the case then I may need look at my count.
Trade closed: stop reached
stop triggered. I here a lot of post on here where individuals put wide stops on their trade setups. I however do not. I put a big responsibility on myself for finding the right pivots for my trade and when it goes against what I see then I'm out and will re-enter when the picture is clearer. BTC looks to be struggling to push past 7100. Keep in mind there is no doubt in my mind that we are in a WXY pattern. The only thing that is possible right now is to see BTC push up to 7500 area in an ABC pattern which would mean I have my 5 of the A wave in the wrong location. I will continue to monitor this trade setup and will update as it plays out.Note
Reversal is coming. BTC is currently finishing it's 5th wave and will be correcting in the coming hours. I'm looking for a reversal off the 7578 area. The next question is were does it go. above I laid two options Bearish and Bullish. If we set a 4th wave then I'm looking to target just below 7800. I would expect a 4th wave reversal in the 7300 area. If it pushes lower then it's more likely BTC just completed and ABC and we see further correction. I will be trading which ever pattern presents itself.
Note
Bearish scenario in play. Everything is still holding to the WXY pattern I presented in this post. First target is 6850. Fib structure still indicating same targets. of 6k and 5k for completion of Y wave.
Note
Wave 1 is complete and the A wave has finished. BTC tends to correct in an ABCDE pattern in it's second wave. I would expect this wave to push up in the 7000 area. Then the big drop will come. This wave went $100 further than I expected so when the wave 2 completes I will post fib extension targets for 3rd and 5th wave. For you bears I continue to hold my short position from 7451 and will look to take a partial profit on wave 3 and re-enter on the 4th and I will run a trailing stop all the way down for protection. Where ever the bottom is the green candle that will shoot of there is going to be large and I don't want my short unprotected. For all you bulls out there get exited, when this C wave finishes it will be the biggest green candle we have seen in over a month.
Note
Looks like btc is finishing up it's E wave of wave 2 and should break down in the next couple hours. I have a target in mind for the end of this (5,C,Y) wave. Looks like the 2.618 is sitting right on top of the .786 of an alternative count another trader on here posted yope It also happens to be the 1:1 of the A wave. If it hits that target it may very well be the bottom but I will not be convinced until we break the downtrend line where the X is placed on this chart. Good trading everyone.
Note
It's acting like it wants to break up. Moved my stop into the 6850 area. If it breaks up I would expect a C wave formation up toward the 7500-7800 area. We shall see.
Note
Looking like this structure is going to turn up. This may be a B wave in an ABC in the Y. If it turns around above the 6380 area then I would expect a move toward 7500. I continue to trail this structure with a stop.
Note
Patience is the name of the game today. RSI is in a rising wedge, we'll see if it breaks up or breaks down in this wedge expecting a reaction shortly. If it breaks up we'll see if the trend line can hold it back this time.
Note
Drop likely. RSI ascending channel broken. EMA and trend line are squeezing price. May see one last test of EMA and trendling and then down.
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