Bitcoin Analysis; Bullish Thesis!
Bitcoin rallied and found an immediate resistance at 21.3K. Now trading within the 5 month range at 18K to 
25K which validates the cycle lows at 60 weeks from the highs. So is it UP from here? Definitely not. Still downtrend on Macro. But this range is very significant in my opinion to look for signs of strength and of possible reversal of a trend.
So let's surf the chart and see what's in it in the near term.
Now that BTC is way above 18.2K which is the bottom horizontal support, the hardest part is for the price to hold above it.
First, take note of Bitcoin closing above Daily MA 200 (around 19.5K) for the first time since December 2021. (Orange Circle) this also converged with the 2017 highs at 19.8K, so closing daily above 20K is a positive sign. Next stop is, where BTC could find its demand zone or support in the coming months as it slowly breaks the clearly defined resistance laid out in the chart. Two scenarios to expect in the near term as shown in Bar Pattern. (1) BTC will not go above 21.3K and consolidates below in the next coming days/weeks or (2) capture 21.3K and stop at next resistance at 22.6K then consolidates here in the next coming days/weeks OR (3) Form a possible classic Head and Shoulder Bottom, whether small or complex like the image inserted in the chart.
Till then, we follow the trend and look for validations/invalidations of this set up.
Thank you for reading and appreciating the comments, supporting ideas as well as contradicting ideas.
Surfin ends ...
25K which validates the cycle lows at 60 weeks from the highs. So is it UP from here? Definitely not. Still downtrend on Macro. But this range is very significant in my opinion to look for signs of strength and of possible reversal of a trend.So let's surf the chart and see what's in it in the near term.
Now that BTC is way above 18.2K which is the bottom horizontal support, the hardest part is for the price to hold above it.
First, take note of Bitcoin closing above Daily MA 200 (around 19.5K) for the first time since December 2021. (Orange Circle) this also converged with the 2017 highs at 19.8K, so closing daily above 20K is a positive sign. Next stop is, where BTC could find its demand zone or support in the coming months as it slowly breaks the clearly defined resistance laid out in the chart. Two scenarios to expect in the near term as shown in Bar Pattern. (1) BTC will not go above 21.3K and consolidates below in the next coming days/weeks or (2) capture 21.3K and stop at next resistance at 22.6K then consolidates here in the next coming days/weeks OR (3) Form a possible classic Head and Shoulder Bottom, whether small or complex like the image inserted in the chart.
Till then, we follow the trend and look for validations/invalidations of this set up.
Thank you for reading and appreciating the comments, supporting ideas as well as contradicting ideas.
Surfin ends ...
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