BTCUSD - H4 - WATCH THE CLOUDS !
H4
Once again the clouds worked perfectly well in rejecting an upside attempt breakout which has been directly followed by
a short term trend reversal.
As already mentioned, any recovery seen over the last couple of sessions should only be seen as a TACTICAL CORRECTIVE MOVE in a broad
bear trend which took place from ATH (@ 69'000) and which has been confirmed by the clouds breakout on a daily basis.
From the ATH, we are, STRATEGICALLY speaking, not any more on a buy on dips but clearly on a SELL on rally. (LOWER HIGHS !!!)
ONLY A CLEAR BREAKOUT ON A DAILY CLOSING BASIS OF THE ONGOING DOWNTREND LINE RESISTANCE & MID BOLLINGER BAND (currently around 52'700-53'000)
WOULD FORCE TO A VIEW REASSESSMENT ON MY EXPECTED STRATEGIC BEARISH SCENARIO CALLING FOR LOWER LEVELS.
In this H4 time frame, the 48'850-48'750 area should be seen as a KEY PIVOT SUPPORT LEVEL for further development ; indeed, this support zone coincides with both the Kijun-Sen or Base Line
and the Mid Bollinger Band; MBB should be seen as a good barometer.
On the upside, first significant resistance is the Tenkan-Sen (@ 49'600) then once again, the clouds resistance zone, currently between 50'000 and 50'650).
As long as we stay below the latter level on a closing basis, the ongoing bearish pressure will remain.
Of course, on a TACTICAL view, there are plenty of short term countertrend trading opportunities but... if taken, those long exposure, due to the high volatility, should be watched and monitored very closely
in adopting a strict risk reward strategy and this depending on the choice of your time frame :
1. analyse the potential target
2. directly put in place a trailing stop losses strategy
Therefore, I strongly suggest to monitor price action on multiple time frames, in starting from long term to very short term to have a global overview of the trend in different time frames and then to the opposite in beginning from the very short term time frames to the long term time frames to early detect signal (s).
Last but not least, technical analysis is not an exact science, it is an art that can be compared to a painter in front of his painting, using several brushes and colors to refine the results of his work...
Have a nice week and all the best.
Take care
Best regards
Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Bürki
Once again the clouds worked perfectly well in rejecting an upside attempt breakout which has been directly followed by
a short term trend reversal.
As already mentioned, any recovery seen over the last couple of sessions should only be seen as a TACTICAL CORRECTIVE MOVE in a broad
bear trend which took place from ATH (@ 69'000) and which has been confirmed by the clouds breakout on a daily basis.
From the ATH, we are, STRATEGICALLY speaking, not any more on a buy on dips but clearly on a SELL on rally. (LOWER HIGHS !!!)
ONLY A CLEAR BREAKOUT ON A DAILY CLOSING BASIS OF THE ONGOING DOWNTREND LINE RESISTANCE & MID BOLLINGER BAND (currently around 52'700-53'000)
WOULD FORCE TO A VIEW REASSESSMENT ON MY EXPECTED STRATEGIC BEARISH SCENARIO CALLING FOR LOWER LEVELS.
In this H4 time frame, the 48'850-48'750 area should be seen as a KEY PIVOT SUPPORT LEVEL for further development ; indeed, this support zone coincides with both the Kijun-Sen or Base Line
and the Mid Bollinger Band; MBB should be seen as a good barometer.
On the upside, first significant resistance is the Tenkan-Sen (@ 49'600) then once again, the clouds resistance zone, currently between 50'000 and 50'650).
As long as we stay below the latter level on a closing basis, the ongoing bearish pressure will remain.
Of course, on a TACTICAL view, there are plenty of short term countertrend trading opportunities but... if taken, those long exposure, due to the high volatility, should be watched and monitored very closely
in adopting a strict risk reward strategy and this depending on the choice of your time frame :
1. analyse the potential target
2. directly put in place a trailing stop losses strategy
Therefore, I strongly suggest to monitor price action on multiple time frames, in starting from long term to very short term to have a global overview of the trend in different time frames and then to the opposite in beginning from the very short term time frames to the long term time frames to early detect signal (s).
Last but not least, technical analysis is not an exact science, it is an art that can be compared to a painter in front of his painting, using several brushes and colors to refine the results of his work...
Have a nice week and all the best.
Take care
Best regards
Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Bürki
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