Bitcoin Violent First Pullback from Leg up from Lows

Apr 25, 2018

Extremely violent price action indicates that we have more downside on the 4H and, on higher timeframes, that there is significant likelihood that the move from the lows was a bull trap. Whether we ultimately move to fill the gap from the short squeeze and/or form an equilibrium pattern, complete an ABC correction from the 9.76k highs, or move to new lows since all time highs, there is still more downside to come on the 4H.

A bullish three drives pattern visible on the 15min and significant hidden bullish divergence on the 4H indicate to me that we should form a higher low on the 15min and consolidate between 8.9k-9.3k for some time (potentially up to 9.4k, but I don't believe the market is bullish enough to get there). Getting to the 9.2k-9.4k region will likely result in significant lower time frame bearish regular and hidden momentum divergences. Breaking new lows with good volume before this would paint a very bearish picture for higher timeframes.

The amounts of Bitfinex Bitcoin longs and shorts are significantly bearish .

Apr 26, 2018

Note

Price action is far more bearish than expected. I believe this to be due to lack of shorts on Bitfinex, meaning few short-term buyers (few people covering shorts), meaning very little magnitude on short-term bounces.

Apr 27, 2018

Note

The price levels that I identified in this chart (on the right, not left, chart) relevant to shorting the pullback from the $9750->$8784 move were invalidated when we quickly broke to lower lows and the $9750->$8784 movement became a $9750->$8651 movement.

The $8630 major price level was hit (though we only got to $8652 on Bitfinex, we hit it on every other major exchange). I'll be looking to the $8500, $8460, $8260, and $8100 levels if we break the $8651 lows before the $9760 highs.

May 24, 2018

Trade closed: target reached