Bitcoin: Avoid Getting Caught In This.

Oct 6

Bitcoin has retraced further than anticipated from my previous analysis (went to 60K instead of 64K support). There was never any price confirmation to go long on this time frame so you should have been able to avoid getting caught on the wrong side of such a move. While there appears to be a bullish correction of that move in progress now, it is important to prepare for the coming resistance where a lower high may unfold over the coming week (64K previous support/new resistance).

The arrow on my chart points to the 64K resistance area. This location is notable for two important reasons: price can present a bearish reversal there on this time frame, and retest the level again as a profit objective in the near future. The illustration on my chart shows how I am anticipating the price action will play out in this regard. Keep in mind, this is NOT any kind of guarantee, it is what I believe has a greater possibility compared to a narrow range of scenarios over a short time horizon (click on previous articles to see how my illustrations play out).

The whole point of sharing this analysis is to help you prepare for what the market can throw at you over the coming week. The key to using this information effectively is evaluating price action around these levels in search of CONFIRMATION (Trade Scanner Pro was made of this purpose). For example, over the previous week, Bitcoin broke the 64K anticipated support without ever confirming. There was never a reason to justify risk here, and every reason to step aside. Having a decision making model of this nature not only helps you to adjust to unexpected changes, but also avoid unnecessary losing positions.

In terms of current momentum, there was an inside bar breakout at 62,300 (previous high) and a long signal in play. This type of opportunity is best managed by smaller time frame strategies (day/swing trades). This is far from an attractive investment level, especially since there is only about 1K points before first resistance (64K). I consider this location as one of elevated risk, especially compared to the possibility of retesting 60K support again to be followed by a bullish signal. The second bullish signal (off 60K) would be the lower risk/higher probability play. This is just a possible scenario that I will be prepared for IF Bitcoin presents and confirms it, this is NOT a forecast.

Whether you are an investor or trader, you must have a way to objectively make decisions. A set of criteria to identify an opportunity, confirm entries, project exits and define risk. The time horizon that you choose will be an important factor that will shape how you process this information. As complex as all of this may sound, the goal is to accomplish this all while using as little information as possible. This is the LEAST you can do in a market environment where we as the retail trader/investor have NO advantage whatsoever. Otherwise you are simply stuffing your money into a glorified slot machine.

Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.