BTCUSD, Daily, Continuation of the downtrend?

Jul 27, 2022

Due to a similar formation that has already occurred twice, I predict a breakout from the channel and further drops, maybe to the retracement of 13850, where there is a demand and a fibo retracement. Even stronger support levels are on the retracement of 10850 and on retracements lower than 9000 (also fibo levels). This construction is based on a channel, a false breakout, and a bounce of the downtrend line. Because the price bounced off the trendline triple (I count only main bounces), I think that it is the last or penultimate bounce. We are still in a downtrend. Following that, I would forecast consolidation-accumulation.

As my forecast is quite complex, chances are it will come true according to the arrows I have drawn. It is possible, for example, that we will have a head and shoulders pattern (or as I call it, a Dick pattern) + a rebound from the downtrend line, not from the bottom channel.

DISCLAIMER
It is not financial advice. It is only my own view of the market.

Jul 27, 2022

Note

So maybe we are realizing a double top as it was in earlier similar situations. Also take a look at the logarythmic chart.

Jul 30, 2022

Note

Yesterday was drawn an indecision bar, so we have to not take it as a very good short signal, but on the smaller framerates it looks like we have a distribution. Summarizing, can we short it? - Yes, of course, but it is not a high-quality setup.

Jul 30, 2022

Note

Why do I think that we have a distribution? I see a diamond formation, which can mean a trend change or a correction in the uptrend. A reminder: always use Stop Loss.