Bitcoin bubble cycle complete?
Let us start by taking a deep breath after a very interesting week considering Bitcoins price action with two major trendlines being tested.
It should be strictly noted that the 11-month downtrend is still in play, which a lot of participants seem to forget because they are using linear trends, which I think is inappropriate in markets with such large movements (it's the relative difference that counts, not the absolute difference)
It should also be noted that because of the extreme volatility at the extreme pricepoints the trendlines look very differently on the BTCCNY pair or even other BTCUSD exchanges.
Nevertheless, the lower trendline might prove to be pivotal to sentiment in the short term whether we are going for 2xx prices again deminishing bullish confidence for a considerable timeframe (again...).
I think the strongest development will be to have a very slow rampup in price along the trendline (the longer and the less volatility the better.)
Also, from a fundamental point of view, it might be very interesting to follow developments in the auctioning of the second bulk of 50,000 Silk Road Bitcoin. The sale of the first batch led to a buying frenzy which took us from low 400's to nearly 700$.
Also keep in mind that the days for ETF to go live are coming closer...
Watch the news and consider the following:
Why is this news being conveyed to the public like this?
How has the market been acting before this news?
If I were a large player, how would I want the public to react?
tl;dr: I expect volatility to take a few days off for the market to properly recover the past week. After that, news events and corresponding whale sentiment will decide whether the 11-month bearmarket can be put to rest.
Lastly, watch out carefully picking a side or setting a stoploss based on the bottom trendline. This market is known for the phenomenon of stop hunting. Find clear confirmation of a direction before entering a trade!
It should be strictly noted that the 11-month downtrend is still in play, which a lot of participants seem to forget because they are using linear trends, which I think is inappropriate in markets with such large movements (it's the relative difference that counts, not the absolute difference)
It should also be noted that because of the extreme volatility at the extreme pricepoints the trendlines look very differently on the BTCCNY pair or even other BTCUSD exchanges.
Nevertheless, the lower trendline might prove to be pivotal to sentiment in the short term whether we are going for 2xx prices again deminishing bullish confidence for a considerable timeframe (again...).
I think the strongest development will be to have a very slow rampup in price along the trendline (the longer and the less volatility the better.)
Also, from a fundamental point of view, it might be very interesting to follow developments in the auctioning of the second bulk of 50,000 Silk Road Bitcoin. The sale of the first batch led to a buying frenzy which took us from low 400's to nearly 700$.
Also keep in mind that the days for ETF to go live are coming closer...
Watch the news and consider the following:
Why is this news being conveyed to the public like this?
How has the market been acting before this news?
If I were a large player, how would I want the public to react?
tl;dr: I expect volatility to take a few days off for the market to properly recover the past week. After that, news events and corresponding whale sentiment will decide whether the 11-month bearmarket can be put to rest.
Lastly, watch out carefully picking a side or setting a stoploss based on the bottom trendline. This market is known for the phenomenon of stop hunting. Find clear confirmation of a direction before entering a trade!
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