2024-09-16 - priceactiontds - daily update - bitcoin

Good Evening and I hope you are well.

tl;dr
Since today was a very slow day, my weekly update is more interesting than today’s daily update (in case you haven’t read it).

Bitcoin - Very good follow through by the bears and I joined them for a swing short with target 54000 or lower. 59300 should not get hit again or bears are not strong and 60000 is more likely than more downside.


comment: Two pushes down now and a third could get us to 56500, where I expect stronger buying again. For now bears did enough today to confirm the bear trend line and the contracting market. Bears now need to keep it below 59300.

current market cycle: trading range

key levels: 53000 - 60700

bull case: Bulls did not do much over the weekend and today. They also don’t have many arguments on their side. 57500-59000 is not a good buy zone for them and we trading below the 1h and the daily 20ema. I expect more buying around 56500-57500. Above 59300 bears fumbled it again.
Invalidation is below 55000.

bear case: Bears did enough today to gain control of the market. Their next target is around 56500 and that’s about it. If they are really strong (which I highly doubt) they would get to 55000 and below.
Invalidation is above 59300.

short term: Slightly bearish for 56500ish.

medium-long term: Down to 40000 (could take 1-3 months). Could also drop to 20000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —unchanged since March, obviously updated the time range which was 6-9 months before. —

current swing trade: Short since 58000 for tp 55000 or lower. SL 59300

trade of the day: Selling bar 10 with stop above bar 9. Market touched the 1h ema and continued the selling. Textbook two legged pullback to the moving average and continuation of the trend.