BTC/USDT — Bearish Impulse Structure Near Completion, Is Wave 5?

Bitcoin is entering one of its most decisive phases since reaching its recent cycle high. On the 3-Day timeframe, the price is forming a clear 5-wave bearish impulse, and the entire structure is now converging into one critical question:

Are we standing right at the edge of the “final flush” into Wave (5)?


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📌 The Bigger Picture

After peaking in the 120–126k region, BTC entered a distribution phase that triggered a sharp decline into Wave (1).
The rebound into Wave (2) failed to break new highs — a strong confirmation that the market lost bullish strength.

Now the price is trapped between:

Major Supply Zone (~92k) → Historical distribution block with heavy seller presence

Key Demand Zone (84.6k–78k) → Critical retest zone that acts as the last defensive wall for mid-term buyers


From here, the market narrative becomes very clear:
If BTC loses the 84–78k zone, Wave (5) becomes highly probable — targeting 72k, with an extended risk toward 55k if capitulation unfolds.


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📉 Bearish Scenario — “The Final Flush”

This is the dominant scenario if the impulse structure continues to hold.

1. Strong rejection from the 92k Supply Zone
If BTC fails to reclaim 92k on a 3D close, Wave (4) is likely complete.


2. Breakdown below 84–78k
This signals buyer exhaustion and confirms momentum toward Wave (5).


3. Wave (5) targets:

72k → primary target

55k → extreme capitulation target (similar to 2019 or 2021 flushes)




This scenario becomes fully validated with a decisive 3D close below 84k.
Volume confirmation will be crucial.


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📈 Bullish Scenario — “Wave Failure & Trap Reversal”

For BTC to invalidate the bearish structure, buyers must deliver a strong response:

1. A powerful bounce from the 84.6k–78k zone
Not just a wick, but a 3D bullish engulfing with strong volume.


2. A clean break + 3D close above 92k
This invalidates the bearish wave count and opens the door to 105–110k.


3. Formation of a new Higher Low above 84k
A structural confirmation that bulls regain control.



This bullish scenario is less likely —
but in crypto, “unlikely” doesn’t mean “impossible,” especially if the market is setting up a bull trap before the next major leg.


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🎯 Key Levels to Watch

92,000 → Major Supply / Macro resistance

84,660 – 78,000 → Key Demand Zone / Buyer defense block

72,000 → Critical support & Wave (5) ideal target

55,000 → Deep support if a capitulation event unfolds



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📊 Why This Pattern Matters

A 5-wave impulsive decline typically appears at either:

The beginning of a major correction, or

The end of a macro bullish expansion


If BTC reaches 72k:

It could become the largest accumulation zone before the next bull expansion

Or signal the completion of the previous macro cycle


Either way, the next move will shape BTC’s direction for the next 6–12 months.

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