Bitcoin - Do We Start to Grind Higher
Updated
The market is showing some signs of life again as numerous coins have broken their trend channel and are trading slightly above the initial resistance level, bitcoin' is no exception. Unlike the September rally where Bitcoin' rallied prior to the alts we are seeing the market move in tandem and currently, though it is early, we have another failed low which is a positive sign for bulls. However what we really need is a new high.
After testing the longer term support trend line Bitcoin' bas bounced up to the initial resistance level of 7561 which if this level holds would be a higher low forming the symmetrical triangle pattern. The support and resistance levels have not changed enough to revise the chart so they remain the same. Volume continues to decrease which many believe is a bearish sign, I understand the thought process behind this in traditional markets, but I am not sold on this theory in the bitcoin' market.
My theory is simple supply and demand, and the sentiment that bitcoin' is a store of value and unlike gold', there is a defined amount period. The last article, “Missing the Forest for the Trees”, where I Rana Yard mentioned there was demand from Goldman’s clients to buy Bitcoin' as a store of wealth. The volume at these levels is not those getting out of the market, but those trading the market and others that are accumulating on the dip. Remember this is a zero sum game and for every seller there must be a buyer. I am not selling here are you? I am looking to accumulate for the longer term.
The current down trend has been tested but until we break 8167 we should remain cautious. If we rally to the initial resistance level of 8167 we will look for a pullback and subsequent trade signal to buy. Long term I’m bullish but there is still the possibility we an retest the lower support zone of 6620 to 7117 before seeing a reversal.
Bottom line this is still a boring market, but boring is good. There is no need to jump in quite yet, and absolutely no reason I would be selling here in hopes of buying lower. That is all it would be is hope. Bitcoin' may simply start to grind higher from here in a horizontal trend pattern similar to the gold' chart which we have posted several times. This will allow for plenty of trade opportunities, so for now we just remain patient.
After testing the longer term support trend line Bitcoin' bas bounced up to the initial resistance level of 7561 which if this level holds would be a higher low forming the symmetrical triangle pattern. The support and resistance levels have not changed enough to revise the chart so they remain the same. Volume continues to decrease which many believe is a bearish sign, I understand the thought process behind this in traditional markets, but I am not sold on this theory in the bitcoin' market.
My theory is simple supply and demand, and the sentiment that bitcoin' is a store of value and unlike gold', there is a defined amount period. The last article, “Missing the Forest for the Trees”, where I Rana Yard mentioned there was demand from Goldman’s clients to buy Bitcoin' as a store of wealth. The volume at these levels is not those getting out of the market, but those trading the market and others that are accumulating on the dip. Remember this is a zero sum game and for every seller there must be a buyer. I am not selling here are you? I am looking to accumulate for the longer term.
The current down trend has been tested but until we break 8167 we should remain cautious. If we rally to the initial resistance level of 8167 we will look for a pullback and subsequent trade signal to buy. Long term I’m bullish but there is still the possibility we an retest the lower support zone of 6620 to 7117 before seeing a reversal.
Bottom line this is still a boring market, but boring is good. There is no need to jump in quite yet, and absolutely no reason I would be selling here in hopes of buying lower. That is all it would be is hope. Bitcoin' may simply start to grind higher from here in a horizontal trend pattern similar to the gold' chart which we have posted several times. This will allow for plenty of trade opportunities, so for now we just remain patient.
Note
Note
Weekly Chart Above and Monthly below for perspective if you do not follow us on our site.Note
Many misunderstand the my "Long biasedness". Long term I am long, so why would I sell inventory? If you are just a trader, then this is different then an investor / trader. If you are a swing trader and your trading this market you are gambling. If you are scalp and day trading, please note I have the daily, weekly and monthly charts posted, these are not for this type of trading.There is no "one size fits all" type of trader in this market. scalp, day, swing, and position traders are entirely different strategies. I do not scalp and day trade this market.
There are no Swing trade signals either way right now. We closed ours out already. We posted 3 swing trades, 2 were agressive, one was not. 2 of 3 in bitcoin posted gains. We have not posted a swing trade since 9385. I do not short these markets as one, I live in the US, and second, it is way to volatile. If you are the big shorter then, by all means there are others that post short trades, I for one am not one.
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