Two Paths to follow (BTC)

Updated

Bitcoin long term analysis:

According to recent events on a macroeconomic perspective and TA on the weekly chart I conclude on two different paths Bitcoin can take.

The positive side:

analyzing with diagonal resistances one is be able to notice that Bitcoin's support is around the 34700 mark. From this point, if the price action were to close above this trendline and hold support this would be the bullish scenario (ABC Correction after the bearish Elliot Wave from ATH). It is hard to consider a new ATH is possible because of all the macroeconomic narrative. Bitcoin is highly dependent on NDX,SPX and DJI. Don't forget it is also highly dependent on the DXY which is facing strong resistance which is bullish for bitcoin if it is unable to surpass this resistance (103-104 level). If the DXY index declines and the other three main indexes continue the uptrend Bitcoin will be able to reverse the bear trend we are currently on the weekly chart. I modelled it with a bearish Elliot wave which in my hypothesis ends exactly on the 34400 support and then I would expect a bounce to the upside from this point forward.

The negative side:

I consider this side to be the most realistic one. At the time of publishing the DXY is very close to close above the 103.878 price and yet we have two more days to finish this candle. If it closes above and current resistance turns into support with a bounce, probably BTC and other stocks are doomed to continue on downtrend. The 2021-2022 bull run would be over on my opinion and I would expect a bear market lasting for over a year until the next halving for Bitcoin. The MACD indicator shows a possible bearish cross which could be a leading indicator of bearish continuity.

This is what I see, hence I wanted to share.

Happy Weekend and remember to trade safe.

Comment

BTC has taken the path to the downside. Expect a retracement to the 29000 confluence, if this strong support can't be held I anticipate a very strong correction to the downside.

cegthd

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