BTC: 95k–100k Decision Point – Next Move in Play

Recommendations and Trading Outlook

Relevant Timeframe for Position Entry
• Given the market hesitation, the 4H timeframe seems the most relevant to monitor for a reversal (or continuation) signal. The 2H timeframe may exhibit excessive volatility, while on the 1D timeframe, the signal may come too late.
• On the 4H timeframe, the ISPD Div Pro shows low “Investor Satisfaction” (~0.19), the Mason’s Satisfaction is crossing back above its SMA, and Koncorde indicates “Azul” accumulation. This could serve as an entry point if a technical rebound is confirmed (e.g., breaking out of a range around 98–99k).

Key Levels
• Support #1: ~95,000–96,000$ (Auto AVWAP Low 4H / confluence).
• Support #2 / Major Pivot: 89,000–90,000$. A break below would confirm a more extended corrective scenario.
• Resistances:
• 99,000–100,000$ zone (short-term MA on 2H/4H).
• 104,000–105,000$ (High AVWAP Daily).

Short-Term Scenario
• Bullish if the price moves back above 99–100k on 4H closes, with the short-term MTFTI turning green, targeting 104–105k.
• Neutral / cautious as long as price remains between 95k and 99k.
• Bearish if a clean break below 95k occurs, accelerating toward 90k. Below 89k, a more prolonged A–B–C corrective move (lasting several months) would become likely.

General Conclusion

Fundamental Summary
• The market is primarily awaiting developments on trade tensions (tariffs) and US employment data (NFP, unemployment).
• The announced US “sovereign fund” does not yet guarantee Bitcoin allocation.

Technical Summary
• The 2H/4H timeframes remain slightly bearish but are beginning to show signs of “end of correction” (low ISPD Div Pro, Koncorde divergences).
• The 12H/1D timeframes maintain an underlying bullish trend, but remain cautious (RSI below 50) and could flip bearish if 89k breaks.

Additional Insights from Liquidations & ETF Flows
• Liquidation Maps highlight two key areas:
• Below 95k: A concentration of Long liquidations that could amplify a drop.
• Above 100–102k: A large cluster of Shorts that could fuel a short squeeze.
• Recent ETF flows (table):
• Significant withdrawals on 02/03, followed by a rebound in purchases on 02/04.
• Major players (e.g., BlackRock) continue to accumulate, supporting the idea of underlying demand.

Operational Strategy
• Monitor the 4H timeframe to identify a local bottom around 95–96k. A close above 99–100k would confirm a bullish restart.
• Exit or reduce positions if a clean break below 95k occurs, as the probability of revisiting 90k (or lower) would increase significantly.
• Aggressive traders can attempt a defensive long near 95–96k (stop below 89k).
• More conservative traders should wait for 100k to be reclaimed before positioning for a safer bullish flow.

Key Takeaway: Pivotal Zone Between 95k and 99–100k
• Quick rebound scenario (short-term bounce) if macro conditions ease and US employment data comes in weaker than expected (a factor favoring rate cuts).
• Prolonged corrective scenario if geopolitical tensions escalate or US employment remains strong, delaying monetary policy pivot.

Stay vigilant on macro releases and technical thresholds (95k / 89k / 100k / 105k).
Happy trading!