I think Santa came a little early?

Updated

Bitcoin is giving traders a big gift. But I think it's time to be careful going forward.

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Bitcoin is currently in a strong state of outperformance due to the squeeze. We believe it will be difficult to maintain the current price range for a long time.

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Even if you give up trading in the current section in the morning (Korean standard), you will enter after confirming section E.
As mentioned in the previous chapter, the author argued that the high point of the uptrend is around 44K.
I am trying to avoid long positions in the current section. However, it is true that there is still upward volume remaining, so we plan to spend some time in the morning (Korean standard) section waiting for wise trading.

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We plan to enter a short position after confirming the upward trend that will occur from now on.
As mentioned before, I do not plan to enter into long positions.

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I am pressing the volume on the two sections where technical rise should have occurred. It is judged to be an institutional selling section and since it is not a section with good reviews, the leverage is lowered to accumulate short positions.

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The reason I postponed buying the position from the morning is because of the same factors as now. Technical analysis has little impact in the institutional profit taking period. First, we plan to maintain a short position and check whether it exceeds 43.3k.

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As expected, a false strong bottom formed around 43.3k. Frequent trading in the current section is considered a loss, so even if a rebound occurs, we plan to check trading volume and manage positions by purchasing additional stocks.

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Manage short positions through purchases. Although the increase is larger than expected, we plan to maintain our judgment on adjustment.

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If it fails to break through 43.3k in the current adjustment, we plan to cancel the ban on long positions in the author's section and leave open the possibility of further rises.

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It's a good flow. However, support came out at 43.3k in the section. First, secure the profit from the position and then plan the next position.

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Enter a section short position.
This is a position with a stop loss plan.

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It may feel like they are focusing too much on short positions, but if the current section is broken, the next section is 48k. This is a trend that is difficult to understand in terms of momentum. So, in the current section, we plan to proceed with a short position while acknowledging stubbornness in our judgment.

I plan to set a stop loss after checking the flow.

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Judge the section as descending and set a stop loss at the breakaway point.

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We plan to monitor while maintaining the descending judgment.

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personal thoughts

1. Long-term Bitcoin holders do not release volume to the market (long-term holding due to rising confidence in Bitcoin)

2. Large investment companies have no choice but to purchase the remaining amount of Bitcoin in the market (same rise as now).

3. Investment institutions are not stupid, so they protect the investment risk of high Bitcoin purchase prices by holding stocks of Bitcoin-related companies.

4. The mining company continued to have negative mining costs from May of last year to November of this year, but recently entered the profit zone. There is a possibility of profit realization. (It is highly likely that a large amount of Bitcoin will appear in the market)

5. Investment institutions are likely to meet the shortage in element 4.

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The author is still judging that the current section is the end point of the upward trend. Maintain your current position even if the sideways trend continues.

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Descending in the current section appears highly likely to cause a squeeze. Set limit selling to take profit.

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The author is very stubborn about his short position in the current section. So today, I am maintaining one position rather than trading frequently. The author plans to monitor until late. For anxious traders, it is recommended to secure profits and sleep comfortably (Korean time at night).

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Close the position.

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Interval A new high point is identified.
Stubbornness does not always lead to good results, but stubbornness leading to losses is another story, so I liquidated my position in the profit area.

I admit it was an emotional transaction and I plan to analyze it further after I sleep.
I hope all of my followers transact safely.

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I think it will be of some help to followers who trade late at night (Korean standards) by referring to the image above.

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Since there is a high possibility that the Y-axis movement will expand, lower leverage to establish a long position.

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After securing profits, determine additional flows and re-enter.

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Since there is a possibility that the price may rise again after adjusting to below the entry price range, it is judged to be wise to first secure profits and then re-enter.

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The author's trading inclination is to set a trend and then proceed with trading based on the premise of responding. Therefore, in most cases, they focus on short-term performance rather than long-term performance, and this type of transaction is not something I would personally recommend. The reason is that the intensity of stress is high and can interfere with daily life.

The biggest difference between making high profits in the long term and making continuous cumulative profits in the short term like the author is the quality of life.

Since I hope that the quality of life of my followers will improve, I hope that the author's transaction will be considered as a reference only. A safe deal is the best deal.

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Enter a long position. This is a position with a stop loss.

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As feared, the entry price of the previous position fell again. For this position, we plan to secure profit or set a stop loss after confirming the upward trend.

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For the current section, the criteria for judgment have become simpler.

1) Deny the formed downward pattern and further rise with volume (check the breakout point)

2) Create a falling pattern and retest the rise in a harmonic form.

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In case 2), set a stop loss to protect the position.

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The position was closed with a stop loss.

From now on, I plan to slowly confirm the completion of the harmonic pattern and then plan a long position.

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If there is a rebound up to 43.3k (the breakout confirmation point if stop loss is not applied), check if the volume is weak and plan a short position.

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entered a short position

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The reason for entering the current position is a short position entered with the belief that the falling pattern will lead to a harmonic pattern. I plan to set a stop loss after checking the volume.

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It is expected that the falling pattern will be negated by rising volume before setting a stop loss, resulting in a rise of approximately 1%.
This short position will be modified with a plan to make a profit after managing the rating by purchasing additional shares.

The long position stop loss below is a bit disappointing.

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There is a high possibility that it will rise again after section adjustments are made first. Protect your position during the adjustment period. The current section is not a suitable section for additional purchases. Since this is a section that will be a psychological burden if the weight is increased, wait for an adjustment without additional purchases.

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1) If an adjustment occurs immediately, close the position.

2)Manage position by purchasing additional volume when volume increases further

I think it will be easier to manage section trading psychology if you understand it in the same way as above.

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Fortunately, situation 1) occurred. A suspicious flow was discovered and is being checked further.

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Manage your position with additional purchases.

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1) It was possible to close the position (loss) in the situation, but the impulse was judged based on the volume, so I modified it based on the judgment of 2). We believe we will be able to close the profit. However, for safety, a stop loss is set.

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It is dawn Korean time. To sleep, set a take rofit zone.

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The author believes that there is a rhythm in trading.
This is the case when you read the flow well, but the transaction gets tangled up.

1) We checked the 5-wave rise after wxy, but the stop loss was tight. (This may be the reason why the feeling that the existing short position was superior could not be erased.)

2) I checked the volume and decided to set a stop loss, but the time limit for that decision was short, so I was late to respond. (I was distracted by the judgment that if additional volume came in, I could manage the position with additional purchases and then exit.)

3) Although it was possible to close the position without loss after making additional purchases as planned, the lack of monitoring was created due to the inability to manage the condition, and the position was closed with a stop loss as a result (the loss was expanded due to a stop loss with a heavier proportion)

The loss of a position protected by stop loss can be compensated with profit, but being unable to objectify the trader's own errors is a lack of qualifications as a trader, so make sure you are aware of the details and move on to the next trade.

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Buy long position.

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The rising volume is weaker than expected. We plan to check the strength of further adjustments after closing the position.

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We considered the possibility that small rising patterns could be identified and cause the corrective B wave to rise for a long time.
However, the volume is weaker than expected, so the position is closed in the profit zone.

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This is roughly the expected flow. The author is planning to take a short break on the weekend (Korean standard), so I think it will be helpful for trading followers to refer to the image above.

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If you are a follower who cares about the writer's ideas, it would be a good idea to check the section now.

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The pressing force is strong. This is a section that requires response to additional pressure.

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We plan to check the Bitcoin flow at dawn (Korean standard time). This is a section where you need to be careful about downward adjustments, so I hope followers trade safely.

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Prepare a limit price long position with early morning rising volume in mind.
Long positions in the current section are likely to lead to a downward trend if there is a breakaway.
Stop Loss plans to enter the limit price at a nearby price range.

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Followers planning to sleep (based on Korean time) must set a stop loss. The current section is a very important branching point.

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This is why he argued that if there is a breakaway, it is likely to lead to a downward trend and is a very important turning point.
The position was protected with a stop loss. From now on, we believe the trend has shifted to a downward trend.
Trade accordingly.

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It's not surprising. We understood that this was a very important section, and to protect our position against this trend, we waited until the section close to the stop loss.

Even if there is a brief rebound, there is a high possibility that it will decline further. First, leave some time until the shock subsides and plan a short position in the dead cat section.

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I think it will be difficult to manage the trading sentiment in the section. Let's think about it more simply.

We plan to enter a short position as close to the checked price range as possible. Until then, you just have to manage FOMO.

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This is a short position signal, a judgment that the buying wall will collapse again.

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There are only two differences between a trader who makes profits and expands his investment and the other way around.

Position proportion management and stop loss.

There is a lot of information that many traders already share about momentum and trading techniques, so you can learn it by looking at it. So that's not important. Because all you have to do is try to know.

However, weight management and stop loss are part of trading psychology and tools to protect against loss of opportunity. It's not something you just have to work hard for; it's a necessary item.

A common misconception among traders is that they consider the importance of momentum and trading technology to be high, and consider weight management and stop loss second to none. However, I firmly advise that weight management and stop loss are the top priorities in trading.

The author really dislikes the idea of learning while losing. Among regular traders who entered the leverage market, how many started for fun because they had plenty of money? I think it is low.

Money is precious. So your money is precious too.
I hope we make a lot of money together.

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We plan to set a selling price and see if it outperforms.
Maintain your current judgment until rising volume comes in and breaks away from the dotted trend.

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After confirming the departure from the dotted trend (short-term trend), I briefly checked the volume. Even if it goes up beyond the entry short position, we plan to manage the position through additional purchases. The reason is that even if it goes up, the amount of change in the increase will not be large.

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Plan to re-enter after securing profits. I plan to re-enter after checking the volume.

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Since we were expecting Nasdaq to rise first, we checked that the upward movement would have an impact on Bitcoin, but the impact is weak. We plan to re-enter soon.

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Set a limit price for short position. Since it is for sleeping purposes (Korean standards), it is necessary to manage the proportion and leverage.

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Nasdaq is rising as expected. However, its influence on Bitcoin is weaker than expected.
If the section does not rise as much as expected, I plan to lower the leverage and proportion further, enter a short position, and sleep.

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Enter a short position. The leverage and proportion are significantly lowered.

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Because it is a position with reduced leverage and proportion, we try not to change our judgment significantly due to the fluctuation range (setting a trading plan).

After setting the limit price to sell, sleep.

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The short position secured a limit price profit.
It was an important section where decoupling from the NASDAQ occurred, so a lot of effort was needed to make a decision.

We plan to first confirm the scope of the rebound and then proceed with additional positions.

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The scroll is long. This chapter ends here. This chapter wasn't bad either.

damngoodmoney

트레이딩으로 버는 돈으로도 충분히 만족하면서 살고 있습니다.
교육이나 기타 사업을 할 재능은 없고 개인 트레이딩에 방해되기 때문에 할 생각이 없습니다.

트레이딩뷰는 글을 수정이나 삭제할 수 없기 때문에(하우스룰 위반 제외) 개인 판단을 기록하기 위한 용도로 적합하다 생각되어 사용하는 것 뿐이고 제가 볼 기록에 존댓말을 사용할 필요 없기 때문에 사용하지 않는것 뿐이니 불편하시면 안보시면 됩니다.

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by damngoodmoney

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