Too many bullish for Q4 - bottom is likely NOT in
Majority of retail traders are bullish for Q4, stating that the US Election will be bullish as Trump will be elected.
Many are forgetting that leverage in the crypto market remains high according to Glassnode On-chain analytic data.
Hedge funds and leveraged funds still remain majority short, whereas retail traders have added to long positions according to the latest CME COT report.
As retail traders remain overwhelmingly bullish, trying to long every single falling knife, real capitulation has yet to happen.
Although we may get a small bounce in the short term, I think this will be minimal. We will likely see 48k in September and then 41k later in October/November.
Expecting Q1 2025 to be bullish and ATH may be exceeded in mid-2025 which goes against current consensus.
Many are forgetting that leverage in the crypto market remains high according to Glassnode On-chain analytic data.
Hedge funds and leveraged funds still remain majority short, whereas retail traders have added to long positions according to the latest CME COT report.
As retail traders remain overwhelmingly bullish, trying to long every single falling knife, real capitulation has yet to happen.
Although we may get a small bounce in the short term, I think this will be minimal. We will likely see 48k in September and then 41k later in October/November.
Expecting Q1 2025 to be bullish and ATH may be exceeded in mid-2025 which goes against current consensus.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.