BTC - G20 SUMMIT SUMMARY
Updated
Tension is in the air. Anticipation is through the roof and Bitcoin is free falling! Well it was, before my idea got taken down. Lucky for me, now I can rewrite my idea knowing that we've just broke above the black resistance line! However we shouldn't get too excited just yet. We have the strong dark red dashed resistance line to get through first and then I will be long on Bitcoin! Before that though we have the upcoming G20 summit so who knows what could happen next! I think now is a great time to step back and watch this blockbuster from the comfort of our computer screens. While we wait for the show to start, we should pay attention to market sentiment, find the key areas of importance and plan for each event so no matter what happens, we will crush it! Let's do this!
Market Sentiment
Considering we have had a strong break above this wedge pattern, all we need a catalyst to really get this bad boy going. At this summit tomorrow there will be discussion of everything BLOCKCHAIN and CRYPTO. Blockchain is a part of crypto, not the other way round, so they will be separated in these discussions and there are a number of countries that are pro-blockchain and anti-crypto. I expect there to be positive and negative news for crypto and something that is inevitable is regulation. It will probably hurt in the short term but will make crypto stronger later on. Even if the overall reception is 'not bad', I think the crypto community will take it as a plus! We are an optimistic space! However, nobody knows what exactly will happen. I’m going to be listening closely and tweeting as much information as possible.
Key Areas of Importance
Since the bull trap just above the dark red dashed resistance line, we have formed a descending wedge pattern. While retracing towards the support zone, we managed to break upwards from the pattern! The dark red dashed resistance line is the next important level to break. Once we have broke this, there is a high probability we will be going up from here.
A Plan For Each Event
Now the bulls have got their act together and ended wave - e once and for all, we could be forming the perfect bullish scenario. If we break the dark red dashed resistance line and hold prices above here, we could enter a long trade knowing there is a high probability we will succeed. We would be trading the reversal on the right side of the market because of the support zone on the chart (remember: long-term, this has always been a bull market) and if news from the G20 summit supports the bulls then we could see explosive action upwards from here. Also, we have the divergence on the RSI for three lows! I will try to catch the break of the dark red dashed resistance line, if it’s too late then I will wait for a pull back. If the market doesn’t break the next resistance and goes sideways then I will wait for support and resistance to form before taking action as we may be entering a less volatile phase. If we don't break the resistance and we fall back towards the support zone then I will be monitoring how the market acts at these levels as a strong break down could keep us in a bearish market for a good amount of time longer. In such case I would be short, short, short!
Thank you for taking you time to read this! Please feel free to comment or ask questions. If you feel like this added value to you then please give it a like/give me a follow!
You can follow me through this link -> https://www.tradingview.com/u/JoshThomas04/
Market Sentiment
Considering we have had a strong break above this wedge pattern, all we need a catalyst to really get this bad boy going. At this summit tomorrow there will be discussion of everything BLOCKCHAIN and CRYPTO. Blockchain is a part of crypto, not the other way round, so they will be separated in these discussions and there are a number of countries that are pro-blockchain and anti-crypto. I expect there to be positive and negative news for crypto and something that is inevitable is regulation. It will probably hurt in the short term but will make crypto stronger later on. Even if the overall reception is 'not bad', I think the crypto community will take it as a plus! We are an optimistic space! However, nobody knows what exactly will happen. I’m going to be listening closely and tweeting as much information as possible.
Key Areas of Importance
Since the bull trap just above the dark red dashed resistance line, we have formed a descending wedge pattern. While retracing towards the support zone, we managed to break upwards from the pattern! The dark red dashed resistance line is the next important level to break. Once we have broke this, there is a high probability we will be going up from here.
A Plan For Each Event
Now the bulls have got their act together and ended wave - e once and for all, we could be forming the perfect bullish scenario. If we break the dark red dashed resistance line and hold prices above here, we could enter a long trade knowing there is a high probability we will succeed. We would be trading the reversal on the right side of the market because of the support zone on the chart (remember: long-term, this has always been a bull market) and if news from the G20 summit supports the bulls then we could see explosive action upwards from here. Also, we have the divergence on the RSI for three lows! I will try to catch the break of the dark red dashed resistance line, if it’s too late then I will wait for a pull back. If the market doesn’t break the next resistance and goes sideways then I will wait for support and resistance to form before taking action as we may be entering a less volatile phase. If we don't break the resistance and we fall back towards the support zone then I will be monitoring how the market acts at these levels as a strong break down could keep us in a bearish market for a good amount of time longer. In such case I would be short, short, short!
Thank you for taking you time to read this! Please feel free to comment or ask questions. If you feel like this added value to you then please give it a like/give me a follow!
You can follow me through this link -> https://www.tradingview.com/u/JoshThomas04/
Note
In the run up to the G20 Summit, I thought it would be useful to do some research on the countries in attendance and see what their stance is on Bitcoin. My findings are as below:Argentina (Neutral): Local merchants/service providers are accepting Bitcoin, strong Bitcoin communities, native currency is weak
Australia (Pro): Classed as legal tender, want to carefully regulate, focus on anti terrorism/crime
Brazil (Neutral): Large volume of traders
Canada (Pro): Great place for start-ups, focus on anti terrorism/crime
France (Neutral): Heavy Regulation, worried about terrorism/crime, Pro ICO & Innovations
Germany (Neutral): Heavy Regulation, worried about terrorism/crime, classed as legal tender
India (Against): Heavy Regulation, not classed as legal tender, clamping down and restricting all transactions
Indonesia (Against): Clamping down and restricting all transactions, worried about terrorism/crime
Italy (Neutral): Careful regulation
Japan (Pro): Legal Tender, Careful regulation, hub for crypto innovations
Mexico (Neutral): Careful regulation
Russia (Neutral): Working to legalise and prevent money laundering
Saudi Arabia (Neutral): Religious leader says it is against religion, working on policy
South Korea (Against): Potential ban on trading, full details required on exchanges
Turkey (Pro): Want their own coin, focus on anti terrorism/crime, religious leader says it is against religion
UK (Neutral): Regulation
USA (Neutral): Mixed feelings, careful regulation, focus on crime and investor protection
China (Against): Banned ICO’s and exchanges, clamping down on mining
South Africa (Neutral): Regulation, President spoke positively about crypto
ECB (Against): Believes it could threaten financial stability
This is just an hours worth of research so if you have any extra information you'd like to add then please leave a comment!
Note
Thanks Fugerias for help with the info!! To summarise this, we have 4 Pro-crypto countries, 11 Neutral countries (2 of these being UK and USA - big players!) and 5 Against crypto countries!
2 of these are France and Germany who both called for heavy handed regulation however they have acted pro crypto in some ways too so I have labelled them neutral. When it comes to regulation talks (where it matters alot) they could be against.
As you can see from here, it will be a tight call to say whether the overall sentiment will be bearish or bullish on crypto coming out of this summit! We can do nothing but wait and see.
Good luck trading my friends!
Note
Kissing the top of the channel now!! The question is, should we be buying now? Well it depends on your strategy. Like I said, I want to catch the break-out so as soon as its above this line, I'm in. I'm anticipating a bounce back first but I'm unsure of what magnitude as this pump was heavily influenced by the FBP news. (enca.com/technology/crypto-assets-dont-pose-risk-yet-fsb-study)
I'll set a stop just below the resistance at $8150 to allow for noise and my target is $9300 as this has acted as support and resistance since 07/01. I see it bouncing here at which point I'll be looking for the next trade on bitcoin.
Note
Sorry, that should say FSB!Note
I was contemplating staying up and seeing this through but I've been on this all day! Gonna place my order as detailed in the chart below.Good luck trading guys! #imnotafinancialadvisor
Note
Hi guys! If you want to keep updated on the G20 summit then search #G20Bitcoin or #G20 on twitter or you can go to the G20 website and follow the latest news there. g20.org/en/newsTrade active
The Buy-Limit was filled at $8520. Stop order placed for safety at $8300 and let's look towards the $9300 as a first target!Note
Good info on the agenda for today and tomorrowg20.org/en/press/press-kit/press-releases/first-g20-meeting-finance-ministers-and-central-bank-governors-begins
Note
Looks like we could've broke the short-term support line and are heading towards my stop. This could be just noise here but if we do get stopped out then I will be looking for a reversal around the 50% retracement.I won't be entering a trade here at this level as I want to see some strength from the bulls first. This could've been a bull trap so we should be cautious when re-entering the market. I will update with more info later.
Trade closed: stop reached
The unfortunate thing happened and I was stopped out just for the price to bounce again! Lesson learnt: Let the market tell you where to put the stop. Place the stop outside a technical area, allowing for noise. If this means you are risking more than you reward, then don't enter the trade.
In this case we could've afforded it! Hey, at least we only lost 2.9%! Let's look for the next trade.
Note
It looks like bulls are struggling to take control and break the dark red dashed resistance line. I'm expecting a pull back from here so we can gather the momentum to break through it.I've drawn out a few possibilities in the chart below. I have labelled them in order of the probability that it will happen (1. being most likely - 4. being least likely)
I wouldn't be entering trades until we know which way we are going. We don't know what about to happen next and at the minute, the crypto space is very sensitive to news which makes it even more dangerous. Keep an ear on the #G20Bitcoin
Note
Apologies, I forgot to add one arrow..Note
Sessions at the G20 conclude at 2.45pm local time (around 35 mins) at which point an official communication will be distributed and 15 mins later, press conferences occur. We will likely hear some information from this point onwards about the meetings!Note
Live stream of the conference youtube.com/watch?v=Tq7AIg0irGQ&feature=youtu.be&a=Note
Nothing new coming out of the G20 so far. We know now that demands for hard regulation has been curbed however this doesn't there won't be any in the future. There is a review by the FSB of crypto-assets to be released in July 2018. If anyone has anything to add that they learnt from G20 then please comment below!
Note
Please find my post G20 analysis and beyond in my idea below!! 
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