Bitcoin's Current Playbook

Feb 16

Bollinger Bands Squeeze:
- Price is compressing near the basis ($97,100) with narrowing bands (volatility = 809 ATR).
- A breakout above $98,331 or breakdown below $95,869 could trigger a strong directional move.
Momentum Indicators:
- RSI (48.66): Neutral, but RSI-based MA (53.57) hints at slight bullish divergence forming.
- MACD: Bearish crossover (MACD < Signal line), but histogram (-18) shows weakening downward momentum.
Volume & Trend Strength:
- Low ADX (14.52) confirms weak trend – consolidation phase.
- Volume is muted (391), typical before a volatility spike.

Scenarios to Watch:

🔵 Bull Case:
- A 4H close above $98,331 (Upper BB) targets $100,000+, especially with rising volume.
- MACD reversal + RSI breaking above 55 would confirm bullish momentum.

🔴 Bear Case:
- Breakdown below $95,869 (Lower BB) opens path to $94,500 (Zoomed-in chart support) and possibly $92,100.
- Watch for MACD histogram deepening into negative territory.

Strategic Takeaway:

- Aggressive Traders: Scalp the range between $95,869 – $98,331.
- Conservative Traders: Wait for a confirmed breakout with volume surge.
- Risk Note: Always pair entries with stops (e.g., 1.5x ATR = ~1,200 points).

Feb 18

Trade active

Price is now $94,000 (-5% from previous update)
Bitcoin’s drop to $94,000 follows a hotter-than-expected U.S. CPI report, which spooked markets and delayed hopes for Fed rate cuts. While the dip reflects short-term macro jitters, Bitcoin is still holding above its 200-day EMA (85K) — a long-term bullish signal. Whales have quietly scooped up 560K BTC near 94K, suggesting institutional confidence in this zone. However, the technical setup remains precarious: a breakdown below 94K risks a slide toward 90K (next support), while reclaiming 97.5K (20-day EMA) could reignite momentum for a 100K+ retest.

This is a battle between macro fears and whale accumulation. Holders should watch 94K closely — a bounce here aligns with whale bets and historical post-CPI rebounds, but failure opens the door to deeper corrections. Trade safe, and never ignore stops! 🚀