2 Facets of ESG: Speculation and Fundamentals

Nov 17, 2021

It's informative to see the positioning of Commercials (producers and consumers in the Commitment of Traders Report) and how that relates to price action. Commercials are considered the "smart money" in the commodity markets because they supposedly are better able to judge future price direction based on supply and demand conditions "on the ground". These 2 charts show very different positioning by commercials in Copper and Crude Oil futures as price rallied during the reopening. Commercials in the Copper Futures markets increased their net short position whist in the Crude Oil markets they reduced shorts/became more net long. This potentially indicates the commercials have a more bullish view on oil than on copper based on the fundamental supply and demand conditions in the the industry.