CRUDE AUG20 Next Week Prediction

May 16, 2020

June contract settles on 19th of June. Pay careful attention to bottom support

May 16, 2020

Note

19th of May **

May 17, 2020

Trade active

**UPDATE TO SHORT**

"WTI Jun futures (CLM0) have around 85 million barrels outstanding with three more trading days before expiry, compared with 149 million barrels at this stage in the May futures (CLK0) contract cycle."

"Nymex light crude open interest falls
Open interest positions for futures and options for Nymex light sweet crude fell by 15,514 contracts in the week ended 12 May.
Open interest positions decreased to 3.21mn contracts of 1,000 bl each, declining for a fourth week..."

My two cents:

a. June pricing has been hiked (and sold to novice retailers) to ensure contracts can be rolled-over to latter months without having contango.

b. Long positions already being closed in Jul/Aug which I assume is in prep for the the remaining Jun contracts (85m barrels) to be dumped.

c. Delivery of June will hover around $20.00 and pressure on price will still remain on Jul/Aug for another few weeks.

d. Rebound to approx. $30-$38 until end of year.