DAX IndexLong
#202447 - priceactiontds - weekly update - dax
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
dax xetra: Bullish if we get above 19400 and have a daily close there on Monday. Neutral otherwise. Bullish bias was correct last week and bulls broke above the bear trend line. They have made higher highs and lows and are in control again. I have many blow-off top targets above for all markets and if bulls get follow through next week, chances are very good that we reach them before we see a bigger correction. Bears can only hope to keep it below 19400 or we see 19500 soon. Below 18800 I don’t think bulls can reverse this again and we would drop down to 18500.
comment: Thursday and Friday changed the character of the market. Bulls broke above the bear trend line and closed both days at the highs. Next target is the last bear trend line around 19430 before we can retest 19600+. Can only be bullish after past 2 days. Bears can only change my mind if they can close below 19100 again. For now I think many bears gave up and try again around 19500/19600. Is this structure very bullish? Absolutely not. I just think a retest of 19600+ is more likely than a close below 19100. The market spend enough time ins this trading range that the next push above could be the last before we correct in a bigger fashion. After this push up, I would not look for bullish targets until we have seen 18000. Market is overdue for a correction. We will see at least 16000 in 2025.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 18800 - 20000
bull case: Bulls next target is 19400+ before retest of ath. My most outrageous bullish target is still 20000 and everything is aligned to get there. If bulls can’t get it now, they probably wont get it for years.
Invalidation is a daily close below 19000.
bear case: Not much for the bears until they close below 19100 again. They tried for more than two weeks with going nowhere and now market tries the other direction again. I expect more bears to come around at 19600 and if they won’t hold, 20000. Most likely outcome is a continuation of the trading range 18800 - 19600.
Invalidation is above 19600.
outlook last week:
→ Last Sunday we traded 19210 and now we are at 19322 . 90 points on the week. Who told you it’s neutral inside given range? You are goddamn right.
short term: Very bullish above 19400 and even more above 19600. Below 19100 we are absolutely neutral once again. Hell below 18800.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all for now. The current push is most likely the last of it. Bears will come back soon.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Bull flag still valid but potential bullish 5-wave series added for 20k.
tl;dr
dax xetra: Bullish if we get above 19400 and have a daily close there on Monday. Neutral otherwise. Bullish bias was correct last week and bulls broke above the bear trend line. They have made higher highs and lows and are in control again. I have many blow-off top targets above for all markets and if bulls get follow through next week, chances are very good that we reach them before we see a bigger correction. Bears can only hope to keep it below 19400 or we see 19500 soon. Below 18800 I don’t think bulls can reverse this again and we would drop down to 18500.
Quote from last week:
comment: Another week where I can’t make up new stuff. Bears dipped below 19000 and again but could not close below it even once. Market is in balance around 19200-19300 and until we have a daily close below 19000 or above 19400, we will continue to oscillate around that range. It’s maybe slightly more bearish because we have closed 4 consecutive days below the daily 20ema.
comment: Thursday and Friday changed the character of the market. Bulls broke above the bear trend line and closed both days at the highs. Next target is the last bear trend line around 19430 before we can retest 19600+. Can only be bullish after past 2 days. Bears can only change my mind if they can close below 19100 again. For now I think many bears gave up and try again around 19500/19600. Is this structure very bullish? Absolutely not. I just think a retest of 19600+ is more likely than a close below 19100. The market spend enough time ins this trading range that the next push above could be the last before we correct in a bigger fashion. After this push up, I would not look for bullish targets until we have seen 18000. Market is overdue for a correction. We will see at least 16000 in 2025.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 18800 - 20000
bull case: Bulls next target is 19400+ before retest of ath. My most outrageous bullish target is still 20000 and everything is aligned to get there. If bulls can’t get it now, they probably wont get it for years.
Invalidation is a daily close below 19000.
bear case: Not much for the bears until they close below 19100 again. They tried for more than two weeks with going nowhere and now market tries the other direction again. I expect more bears to come around at 19600 and if they won’t hold, 20000. Most likely outcome is a continuation of the trading range 18800 - 19600.
Invalidation is above 19600.
outlook last week:
short term:Neutral 19000 - 19300, bullish above for 19600 or higher. Daily close below 19000 is worst case for bulls because there is no more support until 18200.
→ Last Sunday we traded 19210 and now we are at 19322 . 90 points on the week. Who told you it’s neutral inside given range? You are goddamn right.
short term: Very bullish above 19400 and even more above 19600. Below 19100 we are absolutely neutral once again. Hell below 18800.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all for now. The current push is most likely the last of it. Bears will come back soon.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Bull flag still valid but potential bullish 5-wave series added for 20k.
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