2024-06-18 - a daily price action after hour update - dax
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
overall market comment
Indexes had their expected trading range price action today. Mostly what happens after huge days. Markets are in balance here, which is good for the bulls.
Commodities also all green today. Oil is grinding to 81/82 while Gold is moving sideways under the daily 20ema. I expect Oil to pull back soon and my preferred path for Gold is a break below the triangle and 2300 for another big leg down.
dax
comment: Well, what did we learn today? Not much tbh. It’s still a bear flag and bears keeping it below 18200, which is bearish. My target was at least 18300 for the bulls. Daily ema is at 18450 and that’s also where the bull trend line is for a retest of the breakout. All good targets above but for now, bears are in full control. Bulls need a good 1h bar close above 18200 for higher prices. You won’t find many new info’s below compared to yesterday.
current market cycle: probably bear trend if the pullback stays under 18300/18360
key levels: 18000 - 18400
bull case: Bulls need a good 1h bar close above 18200 for higher prices. Not much more magic to it. If we trade below 18080, we test 18000 again.
Invalidation is below 18080.
bear case: Bears are finding acceptance below 18200, which is very bearish. They are in full control and probably letting the daily ema come closer to attract new bears for another leg below 18000.
Invalidation is above 18360.
short term: neutral. Market is in balance here until breakout above 18200 or below 18080
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Yeah good question. So the open of the week was 18098 and y close was 18084. Good support area for longs. So buying the double bottom bar 33 + 49 was reasonable. Short from the open was also good because it was too strong to not get short and the upper bull channel line held.
overall market comment
Indexes had their expected trading range price action today. Mostly what happens after huge days. Markets are in balance here, which is good for the bulls.
Commodities also all green today. Oil is grinding to 81/82 while Gold is moving sideways under the daily 20ema. I expect Oil to pull back soon and my preferred path for Gold is a break below the triangle and 2300 for another big leg down.
dax
comment: Well, what did we learn today? Not much tbh. It’s still a bear flag and bears keeping it below 18200, which is bearish. My target was at least 18300 for the bulls. Daily ema is at 18450 and that’s also where the bull trend line is for a retest of the breakout. All good targets above but for now, bears are in full control. Bulls need a good 1h bar close above 18200 for higher prices. You won’t find many new info’s below compared to yesterday.
current market cycle: probably bear trend if the pullback stays under 18300/18360
key levels: 18000 - 18400
bull case: Bulls need a good 1h bar close above 18200 for higher prices. Not much more magic to it. If we trade below 18080, we test 18000 again.
Invalidation is below 18080.
bear case: Bears are finding acceptance below 18200, which is very bearish. They are in full control and probably letting the daily ema come closer to attract new bears for another leg below 18000.
Invalidation is above 18360.
short term: neutral. Market is in balance here until breakout above 18200 or below 18080
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Yeah good question. So the open of the week was 18098 and y close was 18084. Good support area for longs. So buying the double bottom bar 33 + 49 was reasonable. Short from the open was also good because it was too strong to not get short and the upper bull channel line held.
