2024-06-10 - a daily price action after hour update - dax
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
dax
comment: Bears managed to print a lower low below 18400 but bulls bought it as expected. The recent bear channel is broken and we are in a new bull channel. Trading range price action and you should only buy pull-backs and fade new highs or lows. US session closed it right at Globex high.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 18400 - 18600
bull case: Bulls kept the bullish gap on my daily chart alive and well. They are moving up to 18600 again, where I expect more sellers than buyers. If bulls manage to break above, we will get 18700 next. They are also trading above the 15m and 1h ema, so they are in full control here.
In my weekly post from yesterday I was in favor of the bulls and I hope you profited from it.
Invalidation is below 18383.
bear case: Bears tried again with a lower low but not enough bears are willing to short new lows and that’s why market is in balance and we move up and down. Bears want to keep this below 18600 or risk stronger leg to 18700. 18585 is the close of last week, which i expect will be hit.
Invalidation is above 18700ish.
short term: Bulls are moving this up again. If they can get it above 18600, I favor 18700 next. If 18600 is resistance, we will probably see 18450 or lower again.
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Long the double bottom bar 28 + 37 on a stop one tick above bar 37, was good for 70 points. Bar 54 + 55 were also strong enough bars to consider new longs, if you covered before.
dax
comment: Bears managed to print a lower low below 18400 but bulls bought it as expected. The recent bear channel is broken and we are in a new bull channel. Trading range price action and you should only buy pull-backs and fade new highs or lows. US session closed it right at Globex high.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 18400 - 18600
bull case: Bulls kept the bullish gap on my daily chart alive and well. They are moving up to 18600 again, where I expect more sellers than buyers. If bulls manage to break above, we will get 18700 next. They are also trading above the 15m and 1h ema, so they are in full control here.
In my weekly post from yesterday I was in favor of the bulls and I hope you profited from it.
Invalidation is below 18383.
bear case: Bears tried again with a lower low but not enough bears are willing to short new lows and that’s why market is in balance and we move up and down. Bears want to keep this below 18600 or risk stronger leg to 18700. 18585 is the close of last week, which i expect will be hit.
Invalidation is above 18700ish.
short term: Bulls are moving this up again. If they can get it above 18600, I favor 18700 next. If 18600 is resistance, we will probably see 18450 or lower again.
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Long the double bottom bar 28 + 37 on a stop one tick above bar 37, was good for 70 points. Bar 54 + 55 were also strong enough bars to consider new longs, if you covered before.
