ES/SPY Weekly Levels & Trade Prep (Jun20-23)
Updated
ES made an explosive move through the longer term 618 Fib retracement closing at the Aug 16th pivot high. As earnings season has wrapped up the main catalyst this shortened trading week will be speeches from Fed Heads including Powell on Wednesday and Thursday. NQ is trading the bull zone but is extended and due for a pause or pull back. The first major dip should be buyable.
SUMMARY
• ES posted a 2.54% gain last week after trading in a range of 141 points.
• ES broke through the longer term 618 Fib retracement.
• Priced closed at the Aug 16th high which is now first resistance.
• ES only 8.74% off its ATH.
• Every sector closed green on the week except XLE which closed down 0.58%. Strongest sectors were XLK, XLB & XLY
• Market breadth has improved but Mega caps continued to lead the market higher.
• More than half (52%) of all stocks are now above their 200 SMAs.
• Momentum ETFs and algos are now set to buy.
• Long term bias is now bullish but, market is extended and due for a pull back.
• Still potential for ES to re-test the Dec 13th high breakout point.
• VIX is at the TRIM zone (13.53)
• Buy the Dip has returned as the ATH is now in play.
• US Market is closed Monday
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday US Markets closed
Tuesday US Housing Starts, Fed’s Bullard, Barr & Williams speak
Wednesday Can Retail Sales, Fed’s Powell, Goolsbee & Mester speak
Thursday US Initial Jobless Claims, US Home sales, EIA Crude & Fed’s Powell, Bowman, Waller & Mester speak
Friday US S&P Manufacturing PMI flash, Fed’s Mester, Bostic & Bullard speak
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday US Markets closed
Tuesday FDX
Wednesday KBH
Thursday CAN, DRI
Friday KMX
BULLISH NOTES
ES above the long term 618 Fib Retracement
Potential break above the Aug 16th high
EMA are stacked
Market breadth is improving
The longer term 886 Fib retracement is now the price magnet
In a technical bull market. (Above LT 618 Fib RT)
Momentum ETFs are now in buy mode
Buy the dip is back in style
BEARISH NOTES
Potential hard reversal at the Aug 16th high
MEGA cap stocks are extended and near resistance zones
VIX is below 14 (sell zone)
Dec 13th high breakout level has not been re-tested yet.
Potential negative reaction to Fed Head talk
Potential shock event (more bank failures)
Earnings momentum is over
Summer trading season is starting soon (lower volumes)
Both RSI & Stoch 5,1 are Overbought
SUMMARY
• ES posted a 2.54% gain last week after trading in a range of 141 points.
• ES broke through the longer term 618 Fib retracement.
• Priced closed at the Aug 16th high which is now first resistance.
• ES only 8.74% off its ATH.
• Every sector closed green on the week except XLE which closed down 0.58%. Strongest sectors were XLK, XLB & XLY
• Market breadth has improved but Mega caps continued to lead the market higher.
• More than half (52%) of all stocks are now above their 200 SMAs.
• Momentum ETFs and algos are now set to buy.
• Long term bias is now bullish but, market is extended and due for a pull back.
• Still potential for ES to re-test the Dec 13th high breakout point.
• VIX is at the TRIM zone (13.53)
• Buy the Dip has returned as the ATH is now in play.
• US Market is closed Monday
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday US Markets closed
Tuesday US Housing Starts, Fed’s Bullard, Barr & Williams speak
Wednesday Can Retail Sales, Fed’s Powell, Goolsbee & Mester speak
Thursday US Initial Jobless Claims, US Home sales, EIA Crude & Fed’s Powell, Bowman, Waller & Mester speak
Friday US S&P Manufacturing PMI flash, Fed’s Mester, Bostic & Bullard speak
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday US Markets closed
Tuesday FDX
Wednesday KBH
Thursday CAN, DRI
Friday KMX
BULLISH NOTES
ES above the long term 618 Fib Retracement
Potential break above the Aug 16th high
EMA are stacked
Market breadth is improving
The longer term 886 Fib retracement is now the price magnet
In a technical bull market. (Above LT 618 Fib RT)
Momentum ETFs are now in buy mode
Buy the dip is back in style
BEARISH NOTES
Potential hard reversal at the Aug 16th high
MEGA cap stocks are extended and near resistance zones
VIX is below 14 (sell zone)
Dec 13th high breakout level has not been re-tested yet.
Potential negative reaction to Fed Head talk
Potential shock event (more bank failures)
Earnings momentum is over
Summer trading season is starting soon (lower volumes)
Both RSI & Stoch 5,1 are Overbought
Comment
ES_F The Aug 16th high held as resistance sending price down for the past 2 days. ES now finding support at the daily 9 ema similar to NQ. Expecting pronounced bounce here. Use the 30 min 9/21/55 emas to keep you on the right side of the intraday trend. Currently still down. If price holds the daily 9 ema a retest of the Aug 16h high is possible. If the low of day is broken look for the green box as next support. Comment
ES_F gave a tradeable bounce at the 9 ema but has corrected lower again. First support come in at the 618 Fib. May see some sideways price action to close the week. Market has a slow tempo today. 
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