ES/SPY Weekly Levels & Trade Prep (May8-12)
Same setup as last week. ES continues to trade just below the Dec 13th high and downward trendline. Closed last week at the high of range so breakout this week is possible, but I plan to trade the recent range until it breaks.
SUMMARY
• ES posted a 1.0% loss last week after trading in a range of 143 points.
• ES traded down the first 4 days of the week but rallied on Friday to close above the 9/21/55 emas & 200 sma.
• Strongest sectors last week were XLP & XLK. Weakest were XLE & XLC
• ES closed just below the long term downward trendline
• Positive reaction to FOMC rate hike and bank failures
• Key catalyst this week will be the CPI data on Wednesday
• Earnings this week include reports from LCID, PLUG, DIS, RIVN, ABNB, PYPL, TTD, CELH & HOOD
• Sell in May psychological effect in play
• Market trading like it expects a pause in rate hikes
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday US Wholesale inventories NY Feb Inflation expectations
Tuesday Fed’s Jefferson & Williams speak
Wednesday US CPI & EIA Crude Inventories
Thursday BoE Rate decision, US Initial Jobless Claims & US PPI + Fed’s Waller speaks
Friday University of Mich. Sentiment
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday ACAD, CRSP, DISH, DVN, KKR, LCID, MCK, PLTR, PYPL, PLUG, PGNY, SWKS, TSN
Tuesday ABNB, AFRM, AKAM, APD, AXON, BE, CELH, COTY, EA, OXY, RIVN, TOST, TWLO, UA, WYNN
Wednesday BAM, DIS, HOOD, IEP, MFC, NTR, PFGC, RBLX, TEVA, TTD, U, WEN
Thursday AQN, CPG, JD, YETI
Friday HMC
BULLISH NOTES
Successfully held another test of the MTF 618 Fib RT (4072)
Bullish close on Friday recovering from 4 down days
Price above 9/21/55 ema and 200 SMA
50 SMA is above the 200 SMA
Potential positive reaction to CPI & earnings
Potential break above the Dec 13th high
10 year yield holding below 4%
Market expects a rate pause now.
BEARISH NOTES
Potential rejection at descending trendline & Dec 13th high
VIX is at 17 and due for a spike.
Sell in May psychological effect
Potential negative reaction to CPI data and earnings
Momentum concentrated in a small number of stocks
Yields and the USD close to support and may reverse trend
More potential bank failures.
Defensive XLP sector remains strong
SUMMARY
• ES posted a 1.0% loss last week after trading in a range of 143 points.
• ES traded down the first 4 days of the week but rallied on Friday to close above the 9/21/55 emas & 200 sma.
• Strongest sectors last week were XLP & XLK. Weakest were XLE & XLC
• ES closed just below the long term downward trendline
• Positive reaction to FOMC rate hike and bank failures
• Key catalyst this week will be the CPI data on Wednesday
• Earnings this week include reports from LCID, PLUG, DIS, RIVN, ABNB, PYPL, TTD, CELH & HOOD
• Sell in May psychological effect in play
• Market trading like it expects a pause in rate hikes
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday US Wholesale inventories NY Feb Inflation expectations
Tuesday Fed’s Jefferson & Williams speak
Wednesday US CPI & EIA Crude Inventories
Thursday BoE Rate decision, US Initial Jobless Claims & US PPI + Fed’s Waller speaks
Friday University of Mich. Sentiment
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday ACAD, CRSP, DISH, DVN, KKR, LCID, MCK, PLTR, PYPL, PLUG, PGNY, SWKS, TSN
Tuesday ABNB, AFRM, AKAM, APD, AXON, BE, CELH, COTY, EA, OXY, RIVN, TOST, TWLO, UA, WYNN
Wednesday BAM, DIS, HOOD, IEP, MFC, NTR, PFGC, RBLX, TEVA, TTD, U, WEN
Thursday AQN, CPG, JD, YETI
Friday HMC
BULLISH NOTES
Successfully held another test of the MTF 618 Fib RT (4072)
Bullish close on Friday recovering from 4 down days
Price above 9/21/55 ema and 200 SMA
50 SMA is above the 200 SMA
Potential positive reaction to CPI & earnings
Potential break above the Dec 13th high
10 year yield holding below 4%
Market expects a rate pause now.
BEARISH NOTES
Potential rejection at descending trendline & Dec 13th high
VIX is at 17 and due for a spike.
Sell in May psychological effect
Potential negative reaction to CPI data and earnings
Momentum concentrated in a small number of stocks
Yields and the USD close to support and may reverse trend
More potential bank failures.
Defensive XLP sector remains strong
Comment:
Waiting on some bullish continuation following the CPI data. $ES_F is lagging and holding back the $NQ_F. Still fighting to get over the downward trendline and move higher. Watching the recent pivot high for a sign price will continue higher upside target is Dec 13th high. Move above that level would be very bullish.
Comment:
$ES_F So far every time price breaks the trendline a retest has failed & dropped below again. Bullish cont' will happen when the retest of the trendline holds.
