ES/SPY Weekly Levels (Jan30-Feb3)

The S&P 500 continued its bullish performance with a 2.40% gain last week, and trading within a range of 143 points. The S&P closed above the important technical levels of 9/21/55 EMA and 200 SMA, indicating a bullish momentum. The S&P ended the week just below the long-term downward trendline and 94 points below the December 13th pivot high. The S&P is currently 15.50% above the October 13th low. The performance of the aggressive sectors such as XLY, XLK, and XLC have been outpacing the defensive sectors of XLP and XLU, which could be a sign of market rotation and increased risk appetite. TSLA posted a strong 33% gain last week, which is also a sign of a strong market sentiment. This week is packed with important events such as earnings reports from major companies such as AAPL, AMZN, and GOOGL, FOMC rate decision and commentary, and Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday. Furthermore, the end of the month is on Tuesday, which could lead to month-end adjustments and volatility. Overall, the market is currently at a key level that could break either way. A massive short covering rally or deep sell off are equally possible this week.

• S&P posted a 2.40% gain last week after trading in a range of 143 points
• Price closed above the 9/21/55 emas & 200 sma
• Finished the week just below the long term downward trendline and 94 points below the Dec 13th pivot high
• The S&P is now 15.50% above the Oct 13th low.
• The aggressive XLY, XLK & XLC sectors outperformed the defensive XLP & XLU
• TSLA posted an impressive 33% gain last week
• Big week ahead for earning with reports due out for AAPL, AMZN & GOOGL
• FOMC rate decision and commentary on Wednesday & Non Farm Payrolls on Friday
• End of Month on Tuesday
• Starting the week at a key level that can break either way

WEEKLY EVENTS

Monday Nothing Notable
Tuesday Canadian GDP, US Case Shiller & US consumer confidence
Wednesday US S&P Manufacturing, ISM Manfacturing, EIA Crude, FOMC Rate Decision
Thursday ECB Rate Decision, US Factory orders
Friday US Non Farm Payrolls & US average earnings

NOTABLE EARNINGS

Monday CFLT, SOFI
Tuesday AMD, AMGN, CAT, EA, GM, MCD, PFE, SNAP, SYY, UPS, XOM, WDC
Wednesday ALGN, META, MO, PTON, SU, TMUS, WM, OTIS, MET
Thursday AAPL, AMZN, BCE, BMY, CLX, COP, DGX, GILD, GOOG, HOG, HON, HSY, LLY, MCHP, MRK, QCOM, SBUX, X, F
Friday CHD, ZBH

BULLISH NOTES

Above 9/21/55 emas
Above 200 sma
Rotation away from defensive sectors
Bullish momentum
Possible positive reaction earnings & FOMC
Possible heave short covering
Dropping USD & yields

BEARISH NOTES

Potential rejection at key trendline resistance
Potential negative reaction to earnings & FOMC
Potential negative reaction to Non-farm payrolls
Stoch (5,1) is overbought
Pull back possible after large run up
S&P has not made a higher high yet
Potential reversal higher in USD & yields

Comment:

Hit the long term downward trendline and pulled back to the 200 sma and upward trendline where it has found support going into the FOMC. Traders seem uncommitted this morning so sitting on my hands today.

Comment:

Huge rally post FOMC. At the Dec high now so some resistance is expected. Targets above it it breaks are the fib 886/382 fib levels. A pull back the emas is makes sense here but short covering can be viscous so caution is recommended in both directions here.

Comment:

Big rally yesterday took price past the Dec high into the close but price was quickly rejected on poor earnings from mega tech. Pull back to trendline and possibly the ema cloud now likely as most vertical moves are eventually retraced. Big gap down so gap fill possible. Less that 50% gap fill would be bearish.