ES/SPY Weekly Levels & Trade Prep (May1-5)
ES closed the week on a positve note finishing above the decending trendline setting up a potential spike move into the Dec 13th high before the FOMC rate decision on Wedneday. All recent moves have been reversed so watch for a clean break and follow through before any aggresive long entries.
SUMMARY
• ES posted a 0.90% gain last week after trading in a range of 125 points.
• ES broke out and closed above the descending trendline
• Price moved back above the 9/21/55 emas & 200 sma.
• Strongest sectors to close the week were XLC, XLK. Weakest was XLU
• Key catalyst this week will be the FOMC rate decision & commentary on the Wednesday
• This week’s earnings include reports from AAPL, LYFT, UBER, MRO, AMD, SEDG, COIN, BUD & PFE
• Watch for failed breakout at the Dec 13th high.
• Still in a historically bullish period for stocks but focus will shift to “sell in May”
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday US S&P Manufacturing PMI
Tuesday US Factory Orders & US JOLTS
Wednesday US ADP Employment Change, US S&P Serviced PMI, EIA Crude & FOMC Rate Decision
Thursday ECB Rate Statement, US Trade Balance & US Initial Jobless Claims
Friday US Unemployment Rate, US Non Farm Payrolls
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday ANET, CAR, DF, FANG, L, MGM, NXPI, SFM, SOFI, SYK,
Tuesday AMD, AME, BP, CHK, CMI, CZR, ECL, EIX, ETN, F, MAR, MPC, MTCH, PAYC, PFE, QSR, SBUX, SRPT, SYY, TAP, UBER, WU, XP, ZBH,
Wednesday ALB, ALL, CFLT, CTSH, CVS, EL, ETSY, FTS, GOLD, IR, KHC, MET, MRO, PSA, QCOM, QRVO, RUN, SEDG, TT, WING, YUM, Z
Thursday AAPL, AIG, BCE, BUD, CAH, CNQ, COIN, COP, DASH, DBX, DDOG, DKNG, ED, EXPE, FTNT, H, K, LYFT, MCHP, MRNA,
Friday DISH, ENB, FLR, JCI, NVO
BULLISH NOTES
ES reclaimed the 9/21 emas
Price broke and closed above the downward trendline
Price back above 9/21/55 ema and 200 SMA
50 SMA is above the 200 SMA
Bullish price break Dec 13th High
Top of longer term Neutral zone withing striking distance
Yields holding below 4%
Potential positive reaction to FOMC Meeting and Earnings
Historically bullish period for stocks
Earnings momentum led by AAPL
BEARISH NOTES
Potential rejection at Dec 13th High
VIX is at 15.77 and due for a spike.
Potential false breakout above downward trendline
Potential negative reaction to FOMC and earnings (AAPL)
Momentum concentrated in a small number of stocks
Sell in May phenomenon
Yields and the USD close to support and may reverse trend
SUMMARY
• ES posted a 0.90% gain last week after trading in a range of 125 points.
• ES broke out and closed above the descending trendline
• Price moved back above the 9/21/55 emas & 200 sma.
• Strongest sectors to close the week were XLC, XLK. Weakest was XLU
• Key catalyst this week will be the FOMC rate decision & commentary on the Wednesday
• This week’s earnings include reports from AAPL, LYFT, UBER, MRO, AMD, SEDG, COIN, BUD & PFE
• Watch for failed breakout at the Dec 13th high.
• Still in a historically bullish period for stocks but focus will shift to “sell in May”
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday US S&P Manufacturing PMI
Tuesday US Factory Orders & US JOLTS
Wednesday US ADP Employment Change, US S&P Serviced PMI, EIA Crude & FOMC Rate Decision
Thursday ECB Rate Statement, US Trade Balance & US Initial Jobless Claims
Friday US Unemployment Rate, US Non Farm Payrolls
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday ANET, CAR, DF, FANG, L, MGM, NXPI, SFM, SOFI, SYK,
Tuesday AMD, AME, BP, CHK, CMI, CZR, ECL, EIX, ETN, F, MAR, MPC, MTCH, PAYC, PFE, QSR, SBUX, SRPT, SYY, TAP, UBER, WU, XP, ZBH,
Wednesday ALB, ALL, CFLT, CTSH, CVS, EL, ETSY, FTS, GOLD, IR, KHC, MET, MRO, PSA, QCOM, QRVO, RUN, SEDG, TT, WING, YUM, Z
Thursday AAPL, AIG, BCE, BUD, CAH, CNQ, COIN, COP, DASH, DBX, DDOG, DKNG, ED, EXPE, FTNT, H, K, LYFT, MCHP, MRNA,
Friday DISH, ENB, FLR, JCI, NVO
BULLISH NOTES
ES reclaimed the 9/21 emas
Price broke and closed above the downward trendline
Price back above 9/21/55 ema and 200 SMA
50 SMA is above the 200 SMA
Bullish price break Dec 13th High
Top of longer term Neutral zone withing striking distance
Yields holding below 4%
Potential positive reaction to FOMC Meeting and Earnings
Historically bullish period for stocks
Earnings momentum led by AAPL
BEARISH NOTES
Potential rejection at Dec 13th High
VIX is at 15.77 and due for a spike.
Potential false breakout above downward trendline
Potential negative reaction to FOMC and earnings (AAPL)
Momentum concentrated in a small number of stocks
Sell in May phenomenon
Yields and the USD close to support and may reverse trend
Comment:
Back after a few days off. $ES_F attempted a run at the Dec13th high but was rejected quickly. Chopping around the downward trendline. Not expecting much until after FOMC rate decision and commentary +
AAPL
earnings.
AAPL
earnings.
Comment:
Despite the rate hike and a lot of negative news re banks the 4072 level continues to hold. Market likely waiting on
AAPL
earning and potential news about support for banks. I continue to treat the top of the green box as support until its not. if the top of the box fails look for a move to the bottom.
AAPL
earning and potential news about support for banks. I continue to treat the top of the green box as support until its not. if the top of the box fails look for a move to the bottom.
Comment:
The top of the green box held and we got a sharp move high this morning after positive
AAPL
earnings and strong NFP. Watch for break of trendline and move to Dec 13th high. Above the Dec13th high look for move to the 886 Fib.
AAPL
earnings and strong NFP. Watch for break of trendline and move to Dec 13th high. Above the Dec13th high look for move to the 886 Fib.
