ES/SPY Weekly Levels & Trade Prep (Apr24-28)
More of the same as levels remain from last week. The market has been in range. It is important to recognize when the market is trending and when it is sideways. Expect sideways until something breaks.
Treat the 4100 level as your bull/bear line. Sell the top and buy they bottom of the short term range until the pattern changes.
SUMMARY
• ES posted a 0.44% loss last week after trading in a tight range of 60 points.
• Price closed above the 9/ 21/55 emas & 200 sma.
• ES continued to be trapped between the 9 ema and the downward trendline.
• Price has been consolidating just below the trendline for 3 weeks
• Strongest sectors to close the week were XLP, XLU & XLRE. Weakest were XLE & XLC
• Key catalyst potential from big earnings week & PCE data on Friday
• Heavy week of earnings include reports from CVX, XOM, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, NOW, ROKU, NET, MCD, BA, ABBV, META, TDOC, AAL, LUV, MA & V.
• Key support and resistance zones remain the same as last week.
• ES is trading in a large symmetrical triangle
• Ascending trendline may come into play
• Still in a historically bullish period for stocks
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday Nothing Notable
Tuesday US CB consumer Confidence & US New Homes Sales
Wednesday US Durable Goods, EIA Crude Oil Inventories & BOC Minutes
Thursday US Jobless Claims, US GDP advance & US PCE Advance
Friday US PCE data, Consumer Spending & Canadian GDP
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday ADNS, CLF, KO, CNI
Tuesday ADM, BIIB, BYD, DOW, ENPH, FISV, GE, GLW, GM, GOOGL, HAL, ILMN, JNPR, KMB, MCD, MMM, MSFT, NVS, PCAR, PEP, PHM, RTX, SPOT, TXN, UBS, V, VZ
Wednesday ADP, AFL, ALGN, AWK, BA, BSX, CP, CVE, EBAY, EW, HLT, HP, MAT, META, NOW, OC, ODFL, OTIS, ROKU, RJF, TDOC, TECK, TER, WH, WM
Thursday AMZN, AAL, ABBV, AEM, AMGN, ATVI, AYX, AZN, BMY, BTU, CARR, CAT, CHD, CROX, DGX, DLR, DPZ, FSLR, HAS, HOG, HON, HSY, INTC, LLY, MA, LUV, MDLZ, MO, MRK, NEM, NET, NOC, PINS, SKX,
SNAP, TAL
Friday CL, CVX, XOM, WPC
BULLISH NOTES
Potential break above long term downward trendline
Potential break of Dec 13th high
Price closed above 9/21/55 ema and 200 SMA
50 SMA is above the 200 SMA
Heavy week for earnings
Now within Longer term Fib neutral zone.
Dropping yields and USD
Potential positive reaction to Earnings & PCE data
Historically bullish period for stocks
Stoch 5,1 oversold
BEARISH NOTES
Opening week still below long term downward trendline
Potential negative reaction PCE on Friday
Potential negative reaction to earnings
Potential rise in OIL prices will increase inflation
Momentum concentrated in a small number of stocks
Potential hard reversal at downward trendline
Yields and the USD close to support and may reverse trend
Global shock event
VIX due for a spike
Treat the 4100 level as your bull/bear line. Sell the top and buy they bottom of the short term range until the pattern changes.
SUMMARY
• ES posted a 0.44% loss last week after trading in a tight range of 60 points.
• Price closed above the 9/ 21/55 emas & 200 sma.
• ES continued to be trapped between the 9 ema and the downward trendline.
• Price has been consolidating just below the trendline for 3 weeks
• Strongest sectors to close the week were XLP, XLU & XLRE. Weakest were XLE & XLC
• Key catalyst potential from big earnings week & PCE data on Friday
• Heavy week of earnings include reports from CVX, XOM, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, NOW, ROKU, NET, MCD, BA, ABBV, META, TDOC, AAL, LUV, MA & V.
• Key support and resistance zones remain the same as last week.
• ES is trading in a large symmetrical triangle
• Ascending trendline may come into play
• Still in a historically bullish period for stocks
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday Nothing Notable
Tuesday US CB consumer Confidence & US New Homes Sales
Wednesday US Durable Goods, EIA Crude Oil Inventories & BOC Minutes
Thursday US Jobless Claims, US GDP advance & US PCE Advance
Friday US PCE data, Consumer Spending & Canadian GDP
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday ADNS, CLF, KO, CNI
Tuesday ADM, BIIB, BYD, DOW, ENPH, FISV, GE, GLW, GM, GOOGL, HAL, ILMN, JNPR, KMB, MCD, MMM, MSFT, NVS, PCAR, PEP, PHM, RTX, SPOT, TXN, UBS, V, VZ
Wednesday ADP, AFL, ALGN, AWK, BA, BSX, CP, CVE, EBAY, EW, HLT, HP, MAT, META, NOW, OC, ODFL, OTIS, ROKU, RJF, TDOC, TECK, TER, WH, WM
Thursday AMZN, AAL, ABBV, AEM, AMGN, ATVI, AYX, AZN, BMY, BTU, CARR, CAT, CHD, CROX, DGX, DLR, DPZ, FSLR, HAS, HOG, HON, HSY, INTC, LLY, MA, LUV, MDLZ, MO, MRK, NEM, NET, NOC, PINS, SKX,
SNAP, TAL
Friday CL, CVX, XOM, WPC
BULLISH NOTES
Potential break above long term downward trendline
Potential break of Dec 13th high
Price closed above 9/21/55 ema and 200 SMA
50 SMA is above the 200 SMA
Heavy week for earnings
Now within Longer term Fib neutral zone.
Dropping yields and USD
Potential positive reaction to Earnings & PCE data
Historically bullish period for stocks
Stoch 5,1 oversold
BEARISH NOTES
Opening week still below long term downward trendline
Potential negative reaction PCE on Friday
Potential negative reaction to earnings
Potential rise in OIL prices will increase inflation
Momentum concentrated in a small number of stocks
Potential hard reversal at downward trendline
Yields and the USD close to support and may reverse trend
Global shock event
VIX due for a spike
Comment:
Sharp rejection off the downward trendline was playable as well as the long from the bottom of the near term range. Trading the edge of the range is the play until something breaks.
Comment:
$ES_F broke the near term range. It traded down to the 4100 and bounced. The reversal was not as strong as rev in $NQ_F. If 4100 level breaks expect move to green box. Holding above 4100 would be bullish and a test of the downward trendline again would be possible.
Comment:
$ES_F broke the 4100 level and quickly tapped the top of the green box. Nice recovery from that level so far. Needs to break through 21 ema for bullish continuation.. Watch for hard reversals of every move as it is still in range.
