ES/SPY Weekly Levels (Nov21-25)

Nov 21, 2022

The S&P closed the week down .66 % after trading in a 140-point range. Last week turned out to be period of consolidation after the massive move up on the pervious Thurs/Friday. The S&P traded in tight range just above the ema cloud after breaking out above the Nov 1st pivot and coming within 19 point of the 200 sma. The downward trendline may continue to be and upside price magnet. The S&P is short term bullish above the 9 ema and short term bearish below the 55 ema. Below are some points I am considering.

• Price digesting previous week’s massive move up just below key resistance
• Price held a level above the 9/21/55 emas
• Price came within 19 points of 200 sma
• Downward trend line may act as price magnet to upside
• Expect short term bullish price action above the 9 ema
• Expect short term bearish price action below the 55 ema
• Low volume trading week ahead with market closed on Thursday for US Thanksgiving
• Retail in focus going into end of year
• Historically bullish period for stocks
• Longer term trend remains down
• Yields & USD have dropped despite hawkish talk from Fed Heads

WEEKLY EVENTS

Monday Nothing notable
Tuesday Canadian Retail Sales, Fed’s Mester, George & Bullard speak
Wednesday US Initial Jobless Claims,US Durable Goods, US PMI Flash, Univ Mich Sentiment & FOMC Minutes
Thursday US Holiday
Friday Nothing notable

NOTABLE EARNINGS

Monday A, DELL, FUTU, SJM, ZM
Tuesday ADSK, BBY, BHP, BIDU, DKS, DLTR, HPQ, MDT
Wednesday DE
Thursday Nothing notable
Friday Nothing notable

BULLISH NOTES

Above 9/21/55 ema
Downward Trend line potential price magnet
Historically bullish period
Hawkish talk from Fed Heads has not spooked market
Potential positive reaction to FOMC minutes
VIX back to neutral

BEARISH NOTES

Longer term trend is down
Price has already retraced 62%% of previous down move
Potential shock event
Potential negative reaction to FOMC Minutes
No high volume + VIX spike capitulation yet
Bear market rally at key resistance zone (618)

Nov 23, 2022

Note

Sorry for the lack of updates here. Price action has remained bullish. Controlled p/b into the 9 ema and showing relative strength vs NQ. Broke the short term downward trendline and pushing higher after PMI data. FOMC minutes on tap will be key. 200 SMA within striking distance.

Nov 24, 2022

Note

Here is the daily look at the ES. Just a few points away from the 200 sma. Need to watch for a double top in this area or a spike through and then rejections. A move through the 200 sma and a successful retest would be very bullish.