The S&P 500 lost 1.16% last week, while trading within a range of 127 points. Although the price closed above the 21/55 emas and 200 sma, it closed below the 9 ema. The stock finished the week above the long term downward trendline, but was rejected at the pivot high from December 13th. The S&P is currently pulling back, but remains in a longer term uptrend from the October 13th low. XLE was the only sector to post a positive week, with a gain of 4.94%. Bulls are hoping for the ES to stay above the descending trendline and the 200 SMA. A retracement of more than 50% of the recent upward move from December 22nd would be seen as bearish. On the other hand, a break above the December 13th high would be seen as bullish. This week will be significant for economic reports, with CPI on Tuesday, Retail Sales on Wednesday, and PPI on Thursday. Additionally, there will be a heavy schedule of Fed heads speaking throughout the week.
Kept the chart really clean to start the week just marking off the main pivots. There are a lot of fibs in play but many line up with the pivots or will not come into play until we zoom into the lower time frames. I will update the chart throughout the week as always. Key levels of concern to start the week are the Dec 13th high above and the 200 sma below. Expect more volatility especially around the release of the CPI and PPI data. Bull/Bear line is 4000.
Please like, comment and share my work. Thankyou and have a great trading week.
• S&P posted a 1.16% lost last week after trading in a range 127 points
• Price closed above the 21/55 emas & 200 sma, but closed below the 9 ema
• Finished the week above the long term downward trendline
• Price was rejected at the Dec 13th pivot high so the S&P has yet to confirm a higher high.
• S&P is pulling back near term, but remains in a longer-term uptrend from the Oct 13th low
• The only sector to post a positive week was XLE gaining 4.94%
• Bulls want to see price stay above the descending trend line and the 200 SMA
• A retracement of more than 50% of the recent up move from the Dec 22nd low would be very bearish
• A break back above the Dec 13th high would be very bullish
• Big week of economic reports ahead featuring CPI on Tuesday, Retail Sales on Wed & PPI on Thurs.
• Heavy slate of Fed heads speaking through out the week
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday Nothing notable
Tuesday USD CPI & 4 Fed Heads speak
Wednesday US Retail Sales, NY Fed manufacturing, US Industrial Prod. & EIA Crude data
Thursday US Housing starts, US PPI & US Initial Jobless Claims + Fed heads speak
Friday Fed’s Barkin speaks
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday ANET, PLTR, SEDG, TDC
Tuesday ABNB, AKAM, BTU, CLF, DVN, KO, MAR, QSR, SU, TRIP, ZTS
Wednesday BIIB, CSCO, GOLD, KHC, MFC, MRO, NTR, OC, RBLX, ROKU, SGEN, SHOP, TTD, TWLO, Z
Thursday AEM, AMAT, CROX, CVE, DASH, DDOG, DKNG, DLR, ED, H, HAS, TOST
Friday DE
BULLISH NOTES
ES above 21/55 emas and 200 SMA
ES at descending trend line
Earning momentum
Potential positive reaction to CPI & PPI
Potential positive reaction to Fed Head speeches
Stoch (5,1) Approaching oversold
Defensive sectors XLU, XLV, XLP showed slight relative strength
BEARISH NOTES
NQ closed below 9 ema
NQ rejected at the Dec 13th high
10 year Yield rising again
DXY is bouncing of longer term support
Potential negative reaction to CPI & PPI
Potential negative reaction to Fed Head speeches
200 SMA price magnet
Risk on trade weakened last week with p/b in XLC & XLY
Kept the chart really clean to start the week just marking off the main pivots. There are a lot of fibs in play but many line up with the pivots or will not come into play until we zoom into the lower time frames. I will update the chart throughout the week as always. Key levels of concern to start the week are the Dec 13th high above and the 200 sma below. Expect more volatility especially around the release of the CPI and PPI data. Bull/Bear line is 4000.
Please like, comment and share my work. Thankyou and have a great trading week.
• S&P posted a 1.16% lost last week after trading in a range 127 points
• Price closed above the 21/55 emas & 200 sma, but closed below the 9 ema
• Finished the week above the long term downward trendline
• Price was rejected at the Dec 13th pivot high so the S&P has yet to confirm a higher high.
• S&P is pulling back near term, but remains in a longer-term uptrend from the Oct 13th low
• The only sector to post a positive week was XLE gaining 4.94%
• Bulls want to see price stay above the descending trend line and the 200 SMA
• A retracement of more than 50% of the recent up move from the Dec 22nd low would be very bearish
• A break back above the Dec 13th high would be very bullish
• Big week of economic reports ahead featuring CPI on Tuesday, Retail Sales on Wed & PPI on Thurs.
• Heavy slate of Fed heads speaking through out the week
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday Nothing notable
Tuesday USD CPI & 4 Fed Heads speak
Wednesday US Retail Sales, NY Fed manufacturing, US Industrial Prod. & EIA Crude data
Thursday US Housing starts, US PPI & US Initial Jobless Claims + Fed heads speak
Friday Fed’s Barkin speaks
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday ANET, PLTR, SEDG, TDC
Tuesday ABNB, AKAM, BTU, CLF, DVN, KO, MAR, QSR, SU, TRIP, ZTS
Wednesday BIIB, CSCO, GOLD, KHC, MFC, MRO, NTR, OC, RBLX, ROKU, SGEN, SHOP, TTD, TWLO, Z
Thursday AEM, AMAT, CROX, CVE, DASH, DDOG, DKNG, DLR, ED, H, HAS, TOST
Friday DE
BULLISH NOTES
ES above 21/55 emas and 200 SMA
ES at descending trend line
Earning momentum
Potential positive reaction to CPI & PPI
Potential positive reaction to Fed Head speeches
Stoch (5,1) Approaching oversold
Defensive sectors XLU, XLV, XLP showed slight relative strength
BEARISH NOTES
NQ closed below 9 ema
NQ rejected at the Dec 13th high
10 year Yield rising again
DXY is bouncing of longer term support
Potential negative reaction to CPI & PPI
Potential negative reaction to Fed Head speeches
200 SMA price magnet
Risk on trade weakened last week with p/b in XLC & XLY
Comment:
ES tapped tapped the daily 21 ema and downward trendline and is bouncing from those levels to start the week. Price also broke above the 9ema. Now coming into first resistance at the 50% mark of the recent pull back. Targets and resistance above marked with red arrows. If price reverses look to the levels marked with green arrows for support or lower targets for shorts.
Comment:
ES made it to my Dec 13th upside target overnight on CPD data. Was rejected back down to re-test the 9 ema (D). Price has held the 9 ema so far & attempting to go red to green. Opening low must hold for bullish continuation. A break above the Dec 13th high would be very bullish. Fed head scheduled to speak all morning.
Comment:
ES like the NQ rallied yesterday and got back above the downward trendline. Price came close to my Dec 13th high target but rejected overnight then sold off harder on the PPI data. Now back below the trendline and the 9 ema trying to hold the bottom of the CPI low. If the low fails look to the 21 ema and lower trendline for support/targets. Below that the 200 sma would be in play.
Comment:
ES is the same story as NQ. Very bearish price action since break down yesterday afternoon. Cut the though the 9 ema easily and is now below the 21 ema. Its notable that the ES is not respecting the EMAs like the NQ is. Now at the long term trendline. If the trend line breaks look to the 200 sma for support/target.
