ES/SPY Weekly Levels & Trade Prep (June12-16)

Jun 12, 2023

ES begins the week pushing into last weeks high. the longer term 618 Fib retracement remains a price magnet so I am targeting that level on a break of recent highs. If price break get above the 618 Fib the S&P will join the Nasdaq in the bull zone. Expect back and forth price action going into FOMC on Wednesday. I will in scalp mode until the rate decision come out.

SUMMARY
• ES posted a +0.37% gain last week after trading in a range of 60 points.
• ES only 10% off its ATH.
• First resistance is the HFT 618 Fib Retracement. Second resistance is the Aug 16th high.
• Potential re-test of the Dec 13th breakout zone is possible
• Strongest sectors to close the week were XLY, XLU & XLE. Weakest were XLK & XLP
• Market had some rotation from technology to utilities.
• Currently rally led by MEGA cap tech stocks must be supported by broader market for trend continuation.
• Almost half (49%) of all stocks are now above their 200 SMAs.
• Earnings wrap up this week with reports from ORCL, LEN, ADBE & KR
• CPI, PPI and FOMC Rate decision are this week biggest potential market moving econ events
• Buy the Dip may return as the ATH is now in play.

WEEKLY EVENTS

Monday NY Feb Inflation Expectations
Tuesday US CPI & OPEC Monthly Report
Wednesday US PPI, EIA Crude Inventories & FOMC Rate Decision + Press Conference
Thursday ECB Rate Statement, US Initial Jobless Claims & US Retail Sales & NY Fed Manufacturing
Friday Fed’s Bullard & Waller speak

NOTABLE EARNINGS

Monday ORCL
Tuesday Nothing notable
Wednesday LEN
Thursday ADBE, KR
Friday Nothing notable

BULLISH NOTES

Above the Dec 13th high
618 Fib & Aug 16th Pivot high is a potential price magnet
EMA are stacked
Market breadth is improving
Potential positive reaction to CPI data & FOMC rate decision
ES is not as extended as the NQ and may play catchup.
Momentum ETFs are now in buy mode

BEARISH NOTES

Potential hard reversal at the HTF 618 Fib retracement
MEGA cap stocks are extended and near resistance zones
VIX is below 15 (sell zone)
Dec 13th breakout level has not been re-tested yet.
Potential negative reaction to CPI data & FOMC rate decision
Potential shock event (more bank failures)
Earnings momentum is over
Summer trading season is starting soon ( lower volumes)

Jun 13, 2023

Note

ES_F yesterday's bullish move closed above the longer term 618 Fib. The ES is now in the longer term bull zone. Positive reaction to CPI this morning. Aug 16th high now in play. Note the divergence between the SPY and futures. SPY has been leading and already above the Aug 16th high probably due to options. If futures catch up it would be very bullish.

Jun 14, 2023

Note

ES_F the similar to the NQ is getting bought on every dip going into FOMC. Potential blow off move into the Aug 16th high where I expect resistance. Taking quick trades of the emas this morning. Not keen to take on much risk prior to fed meeting.

Jun 15, 2023

Note

ES_F With NVDA and AAPL making new highs it has been hard to slow this down. Upside target of the Aug 16th high achievable today. Price is extended so going heavy long is probably not recommended, but as long as the mega caps make new highs the bias is up.

Jun 16, 2023

Note

ES_F hit the Aug 16th high target. Difficulty so far to break higher. Expecting resistance at this level. Likely needs some time to consolidate in this area. OPEX also tends to lock price in 1 zone. Extended price action but caution with shorts has the entire market has flipped bullish. Personally waiting for a near term pull back before adding long again.