Justification of why I'm bearish on the S&P 500

Sep 24, 2023

This is a typical pattern in which the market reaches an earlier high but immediately rejects the level. In my perspective this drop is more than confirmed at this point so the target I choose, a gap, seems to me a high probability target. How would I trade it? In the same way this structure was formed but I would expect a fractal to form in a lower time frame; I would expect a high to be reached in the short term and rejected immediately, then I would enter on a retracement with an eye on the gap.

But beware of one thing, sometimes the market reach the gap but do not close it but immediately reject the level and start trading for the other side, in that case I would consider it support and see if it is a strong support that will hold or not. The reason why this happens is because nobody leaves orders in the middle of a gap, a gap is literally a trading void and the market usually does not want to take that risk of being without liquidity in the middle of a gap. So be careful.

Sep 25, 2023

Trade closed manually

I closed a trade with the same logic but on the nasdaq getting 43.25 points. The objective I chose in the short term is not the gap presented in the ES, but the low that can be seen in the ES of August 18, 2023, the most obvious and next low in the chart. I'm made for the day. I still believe that the GAP will be reached and closed.

Sep 26, 2023

Trade closed: target reached

Sep 26, 2023

Trade closed: target reached

26 sep around 10:30 NY

Sep 27, 2023

Trade closed: target reached

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