ES/SPY Weekly Levels & Trade Prep (Mar13-17)

Mar 11, 2023

Big week ahead and sadly I will not be in front of the screens as I will be on vacation for a few weeks. My internet access will be limited so my usual updates will be sparse.
Please like and share if you appreciate my work. Thank you.

Trade well and have a good week everybody.


• S&P posted a 4.29% loss last week after trading in a range of 236 points.
• Price closed back below the 9/21/55 emas & 200 sma.
• All sector ended the week red with XLF dropping 8.50 %
• Significant rejection off Dec 13th high on negative bank news (SVB collapse)
• Potential panic selling event on negative bank news and break of Dec 22nd low.
• Potential short covering event on positive bank news and Fed rate pause.
• A move below the Dec 22nd low (3825) could lead to a re-test of Oct lows
• VIX has broken above key 24 level. Move above 30 could ignite panic selling.
• ES has completed a bullish harmonic at 3895. Negates on break of Dec 22nd low.
• High volatility = potential for 100% retracement of any vertical move.
• Futures contracts roll to June this week.
• Quad Option expiry this Friday
• CPI data due out Tuesday

WEEKLY EVENTS

Monday Potential SVB News (Did they get financial support?)
Tuesday US CPI & Fed’s Bowman speaks
Wednesday US Retail Sales, US PPI & EIA Crude Inventories
Thursday Initial Jobless Claims, Housing Starts and ECB Rate Decision
Friday Eurozone CPI, US Industrial Production & University of Mich. Sentiment

NOTABLE EARNINGS

Monday Nothing Notable
Tuesday LEN, MANU, SFTBY
Wednesday ADBE, FIVE, FNV, PATH
Thursday AUY, DG, FDX, WSM
Friday AQN, XPEV

BULLISH NOTES

Held 50% Fib RT (Oct low to Dec high)
Held the Dec 22nd pivot low
Potential positive news from SVB
Potential positive reaction to CPI
Dropping yields an USD support market
Potential Fed rate pause
ES has entered a bullish harmonic completion zone (3895)

BEARISH NOTES

Rejection at Dec 13th Pivot High
S&P back below 9/21/55 emas and 200 SMA
Potential negative news about SVB
Potential negative reaction to CPI
Heavy put buying may pressure market (pile on effect)
Potential break of Dec 22nd low.
Broke back below ascending trendline

Mar 11, 2023

Note

Here is a look at the bullish harmonic I mentioned in the post. I am not likely to take this as a trade. I pay attention to it however, as it reminds me that a bullish reversal is possible in the green zone despite all the negative news. Also worth noting that a break below the red box would be very bearish. Harmonics that fail often lead to trend continuation well past the X point.