New ETH analysis
Really didn't see that coming but honestly, I think only a handful of people predicted this crash, if you are one of them, kudos to you.
Now, I won't even bother trying to find out why it happened, it is what it is. I think the weak stock market open led to this liquidation event and as you all know, crypto markets are extremely leveraged, so nothing we haven't seen many many times. It's really hard to predict these events but luckily they don't happen that often, so if you survived this crash you definitely did something right.
ETH dumped all the way down to 2200$ which is now our key level to look at. To the upside we have 2800 as our first big resistance but the real challenge would now be the 3k level when few days ago 3.4-3.6k was THE level to break but this crash puts everything into a different perspective and we must adapt to it.
I mapped out three possible scenarios of what COULD happen coming days. One being a super bullish scenario (blue line), a somewhat neutral and more likely scenario (black line) and a bearish scenario (red line).
Think they speak for itself, but I will give you a short explanatation:
Blue line (bullish): We close this day above ~2600-2700$ which will most likely indicate that the bottom is in.
Black line (neutral): For me the most likely right now, so basically a rather conventional scenario, where we would see ETH range between 2500-2700$ coming days and eventually break above 2800$
Red line (bearish): Retest 2800$ and see new lows, probably around the 2k level.
I really don't know at this point but if you asked me I would give the bullish scenario a 10-15% chance as we have seen something similar on a few alts already (TIA, Storj, Ondo)
As I said, I'm leaning towards the black line, so seeing another lower high around 2400-2500$ and from there we should see an attempt to break 2.8k
In all of these scenarios I see 3k as the biggest resistance ETH needs to break. I have no idea if it's going to happen, still too early but just wanted to give you an idea of what you can expect.
Stay safe!
Now, I won't even bother trying to find out why it happened, it is what it is. I think the weak stock market open led to this liquidation event and as you all know, crypto markets are extremely leveraged, so nothing we haven't seen many many times. It's really hard to predict these events but luckily they don't happen that often, so if you survived this crash you definitely did something right.
ETH dumped all the way down to 2200$ which is now our key level to look at. To the upside we have 2800 as our first big resistance but the real challenge would now be the 3k level when few days ago 3.4-3.6k was THE level to break but this crash puts everything into a different perspective and we must adapt to it.
I mapped out three possible scenarios of what COULD happen coming days. One being a super bullish scenario (blue line), a somewhat neutral and more likely scenario (black line) and a bearish scenario (red line).
Think they speak for itself, but I will give you a short explanatation:
Blue line (bullish): We close this day above ~2600-2700$ which will most likely indicate that the bottom is in.
Black line (neutral): For me the most likely right now, so basically a rather conventional scenario, where we would see ETH range between 2500-2700$ coming days and eventually break above 2800$
Red line (bearish): Retest 2800$ and see new lows, probably around the 2k level.
I really don't know at this point but if you asked me I would give the bullish scenario a 10-15% chance as we have seen something similar on a few alts already (TIA, Storj, Ondo)
As I said, I'm leaning towards the black line, so seeing another lower high around 2400-2500$ and from there we should see an attempt to break 2.8k
In all of these scenarios I see 3k as the biggest resistance ETH needs to break. I have no idea if it's going to happen, still too early but just wanted to give you an idea of what you can expect.
Stay safe!
Note
Didn't even make it to 2.8k. Anyway, now there is a chance that we see a higher low around 2280 (max 2.2k) Note
So obviously ~2300$ has held so far. First small step would be a break above 2800$, from there it should hold above 2.5k over the next few days. As I said, 3k really is THE key level to break, if it can manage to break above 3.4k next week it's a matter of time until we see 4k IMO. Note
Looks like it's following the black line as expected. There is a decent chance the weekly low is already in, needs to break above 2720 to confirm it. Note
Don't think it's just going to break 3k in one go, so I lean towards a small correction to 2.8k for another higher low after 3k being tagged. Note
Hm, looked good after the bounce from 2.5k but now it's stalling and lacking momentum, which would be typical for a bear flag and it's starting to look like one.
The levels are still valid though. If it continues moving this slow it could still go to 3k but it would likely take few more days.
Right now I would say it's inbetween the black and red line I have showed, think it's 50/50 right now, yesterday I would have leaned more towards the black line being played out, but it is what it is.
If it breaks down from here we could see a drop to 2.2k happen, so be cautious.
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