Trade Idea: Short EUR/AUD @ 1.5270
Updated
I have placed a short order on EUR/AUD @ 1.5270 with a stop loss 1.5370 and a target of 1.5000.
Sentiment:
The sentiment around the EUR remains bearish given the possibility for more QE or other action at the next ECB meeting in 2 weeks. AUD is proving very resilient to poor data, with the poor employment report last week and the poor forecast for future private capital expenditure it still bounced back to end the sessions stronger. Oil also finished the day strong today which should further support some near term risk on and also AUD.
Technical:
AUD is starting to get some fresh lows going back to December. To the downside AUD looks as though it could be due a retracement against USD. EUR on the other hand doesn't look as though it has much to push higher against the dollar.
Data:
Next releases are German Prelim CPI tomorrow and building approvals from Australia next Tuesday.
Risk:
The main risk to this trade is a strong switch back to risk off which will be caused by an unexpected news release relating to Oil or USD rate hikes.
Sentiment:
The sentiment around the EUR remains bearish given the possibility for more QE or other action at the next ECB meeting in 2 weeks. AUD is proving very resilient to poor data, with the poor employment report last week and the poor forecast for future private capital expenditure it still bounced back to end the sessions stronger. Oil also finished the day strong today which should further support some near term risk on and also AUD.
Technical:
AUD is starting to get some fresh lows going back to December. To the downside AUD looks as though it could be due a retracement against USD. EUR on the other hand doesn't look as though it has much to push higher against the dollar.
Data:
Next releases are German Prelim CPI tomorrow and building approvals from Australia next Tuesday.
Risk:
The main risk to this trade is a strong switch back to risk off which will be caused by an unexpected news release relating to Oil or USD rate hikes.
Note
Stop moved back to 1.5450 above recent highs.Note
Stop Loss pulled to break even with RBA cash rate statement coming up along with building approvals and Caixin Manufacturing PMITrade closed manually
Trade closed at break even.
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