EURNZD

1. Market Structure

The pair has been in a multi-month ascending channel (Jul → Nov), but the recent strong bearish impulse has:

Broken the channel to the downside

Created a clear Shift of Structure (ChoCH)

Signaled that bullish momentum is weakening

This is the most important signal on the chart — the uptrend is losing strength.

2. Current Price Position

Price is currently:

Sitting just below a broken trendline

Stalling around 2.0200 – 2.0220, forming small-bodied candles

Showing signs of bearish continuation after a pullback

This aligns perfectly with the bearish projection you drew.

3. Expected Pullback Before The Drop

Your chart shows a potential retest into the 2.044–2.049 zone.

This zone is:

Previous range high liquidity

A clean supply zone

Aligned with the broken ascending channel (trendline retest)

A perfect location for large players to reload shorts

So we expect:

Price to retrace → hit supply → reject → fall strongly