EUR USD - Market still prefers sellers

Jul 28, 2022

G'day,
Previous analysis attached below back in June 7th. Enjoy.

Breakdown:
1. Note
2. Contents
3. Research breakdown
4. Education recap
5. Information on Lupa.

A note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged Neutral, however, as outline below - will be buying until the OL, offers a highly probable zones where a confirmed sell break and a confirmed sell from the Original level. Starting the supply and demand imbalance. Overall, where an imbalance is formed and sellers have completed the changing of hands due to purchasing further increments the exhaustive sellers.

Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. However, note, at current we are awaiting confirmation of a Bearish move (positional trade).

Master Key for zones
Red = Three Month
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Orange = Daily

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EUR USD - in a huge downward curve towards parity (most likely beyond).

Monthly

• Monthly zone reached 1/1 (or thereabouts with a final close generating a low of 0.9948), expected a reactive buy as a fresh demand zone. Due to the curve being so strong with no real structure pivots on the bearish move, the probable zone of price pivoting to is 1.06 (capped) as a PCP level is hidden here within the Weekly, Monthly Combo.
  
• Structurally, the market cycle here has a key move to go - heading down to an untested structure below at the OL (back in 2001).
  
• From a buying standpoint, a reactive buy as price looks to retest from a daily pivot towards 1.00 will indicate a smaller curve needing to be broken from a newly formed trading range (review daily). The monthly curve previously from June 2002 - Nov 2002, shows a nice consolidative pattern so here price will look to form a similar structure after the PCP is hit.
  

Weekly

• 1 - note the reactive tap here, upon every FL especially a monthly, price will reject the supply imbalance and now create a buying demand market allbeit for a short duration. The likelihood for this is from the strong curve in play, which offers a PCP level as shown in purple, crossed with a monthly. The high chance of this chance hitting for buying targets is key for; how PCP levels are drawn and to take risk adjusted counter moves, knowing the fresh level here can offer a chance of retesting.
  
• (structure below still has a high probable pathway as price action is minimal here). Applying the pink curve as a steep curve adjustment will show price has a disjointed pathway which price can pivot towards, reject and form the weekly trading range. (see chart below 1 weekly)
  

Chart 1 - weekly


Bi-annual chart
For position sellers, it's clear the long term move is down to the red box in structure.


Short term buying cover opportunity

• From the daily chart - price has created a low forming a strong daily imbalance between the 0.9948-1.005 range of 102 pips, this now offers the high probability of price to revert back once breaking the curve to form a retest of the zone allowing the opportunity for a reactive buy of the zone.
  
• Subject to the daily pivot point, using the Fibonacci sequence - for a strong retest expect 0.705 to be a level of high interest as this aligns with the zone for a reactive buying point.
  

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