Short

Updated

EURUSD Short Price action setup

First trade won the commission account, going to try for a short from beyond the 4hr level from 1.094, stop loss at 1.0965, target the midline of the diamond pattern trend line area at 1.085

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The thinking behind this set-up is price followed the channel, it has broken the channel and will try to make a new extreme, and then a new direction follows. The entry tried to get the lowest risk highest probability entry on the price action rules

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Has the ingredients for a head and shoulders here, with the last rejection off the 4 hour as the left shoulder, head should peak around 1.942-45 or so, and then retreat back under the 4 hour level, to 1.088 at the top of the the hesitation area where it retested the break out line up, then push to 1.091 and finally reject back to the trend line target 🎯

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If price heads back to the trend line/breakout line crossing, trade is no good and watch for long to break the 1.09 and saty above this round

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Starting to push across a short term downtrend line with a small w pattern Uber the break, should give enough momentum to reach the entry and make the new extreme, before the 4hr level sellers take it back down

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This w pattern is just a reaction from the 4hour level, but it is also a valid reason to come back and retest, which then becomes a trap for more sellers to come in and make a rejection down off the 4 hour level. This current action give further support for the trade idea

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As we near end of day, price may stall below the level, then natural behavior of the pair says retest the high after open, and that's when I expecting to make the entry for this set up

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New daily pivot resistance line at 1.095, giving more support to the trade idea

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*1.0947, with support below the trend line outside the target range showing that support at 1.0844, making this likely to play out before close of the week and not need to carry over

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Starting to turn up and maybe run for the highs, possible entry soon

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Price is continuing along with the thinking, but the recent stall means that possibly it will just make a new high, hitting the obvious stop zone for traders trying to go early off the 4hr level, pushing price to the entry, and leaving the stop on this trade in a fairly safe place, high above where price is trying to start the run from. It's right under the level where it's attempted to push up, instead of drop and launch, so I expect a lot of resistance on price trying to get through

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Still on track, early double top sellers coming in and loading stops just above the level right on schedule

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Very strong rejection, just need the stop run next and then a retrace to the main trend line

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Following the same principle, price channels up tight, breaks the channel (the rejection) now will try new extreme (stop run) entry should be very soon

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Wait for entry, all these eager sellers are about to have the feelings hurt...

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Stop run peak lines up on about 1.09425

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If price does not move very much / doesn't attempt a stop or drop, then we may have a rising flag, and I'll cancel this trade and switch for long

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Make or break time, if price does not start rushing after 1.091, that would indicate a lack of selling power (not many stops taken) and would make me more certain we bagan a rising flag, with the channel as the flagpole of the pattern, then 2 lows make the bottom, clone the line to the top peak (same angle) viola, flag

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EUR and USD currency both mid strength, equal power, so that's a slight tip off, lack of stop hits will confirm

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Short term downtrend broken, will get confirmation within the next 1-2 15 minutes candles (high low candles)

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A break of the low at 1.0901 and I'll go short, stop at 1.0912 (right above the easy numbers

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Staying down after the short term line break, order set, looking to sell into the main trend line as target

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Looks like a drop off coming...

Trade active

Here we go, 11 pips risk, 50 pip current target reward

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Stop to 1.0978, just above the strong selling pressure candle (15 minute) we go back up, look for stop run (original order still waiting)

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*5 minute, just above the big 5 minute red candle

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6.8 pips current risk, no adjustment. Retest, regular or dirty style, the low point trendline should hold if it's ready to go, just wait for one or the other to hit, until we move 25 pis to target, then risk free (+ commission and baby spread)

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Rejecting the 1.09 on the 5 minute, very good sign

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1.0904 stop, right above the second sell short entries off the 5 minute. Not breaking the low, it may come back, so reducing risk to 3.8 pips

Trade closed: stop reached

First entry stop reached, loss of 3.8 pips (counting commission)

Trade active

Should've left alone, market taken at same price, 11 pip stop

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Rejecting the line I wasn't watching 🤦

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And hit the wrong button, but it's going back up, so may work out as happy accident, because it wants to get back into the flag pattern

Trade closed manually

Closed that one, with 8?3 pips gained, it's not the trade I wanted, so it's not a good idea to keep, let price make a decision now

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*8.3, can't even comment on the phone and that was wrong button trade. We go down, away from the level, taking a proper entry from the laptop

Trade active

Short taken with 10 pip stop, 1.0943 entry fill

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1.0855 target and this time looks like it will go

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Whoopsie trade was an accidental catch and scalp of the stop run, a happy accident, now there is commitment away from the 4 hour level, and should return to the trendline price

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Stop 7.8 pips in profit. I know you EURUSD, you like to run off wild somewhere, then make a b line right back, not fooling me into doubt like the GBP 😝

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Stop to 1.0892

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Stop to 1.0889

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1.08665

Trade closed: stop reached

Stop hit *1.08865, 17.8 pips gained

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Looking for a rebound entry around 1.0892

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Using the DOM, set stop of 8 pips, looking for 1.08925

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Setting as a limit, 1.08925 entry, 975 stop (5 pip)

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No rebound, let it run, it could just snap back

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Running, removing the order, as it could snap back and try to run past 1.09

Trade closed manually

And here she comes.... that's it on that leg, time for a new set up. one loss 3.8 pips, one accidental gain of 8.9 pips, one sniper entry for 17 pips gain, and a fun run, especially now I don;t have to do math for spread, and stop exactly where I want, fire away, being selective of course

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Lots of micro levels, the up trend main line is here, news right around the corner, no more potential, all risk in this area, this one is over

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1.086-7 there is a new clear support zone, and with trend coming up under neath, it's time to hunt long. This makes a good note to end a messy week. Heading to bed and let the news roll, be back next week pre open

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Price is back to the breakout line, and below the major trend line. Observing a double top from the 4 hour level, the rejection from here before, and it's a first break across the major line, we could have a pullback phase coming for the overall move as most likely for next week. I'll make a fresh idea and at a minimum set it for either way. I think 1.10 still, but I think the market may want a breather. We go down to get up higher, otherwise, we don't have enough steam, as more early buyers in the trend are taking profits, and more will probably cash in or stop out the trail stops next week, helping price relax out some before making another charge higher. From this level, it's hard to determine if we go to pullback, or charge on up and build pressure against the 4 hour first

ForexStoryteller

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