EUR/USD Technical outlook and review.
4hr TF.
The higher-timeframe picture resembles the following:
• Weekly timeframe: Price is now firmly trading within weekly demand at 1.32940-1.34847 with buyers showing very little interest at the moment.
• Daily timeframe: The daily demand area at 1.33984-1.34397 has seen a small break below no doubt triggering stops in the process. Prices may now be forced to test our daily area of interest below at 1.33559 on this timeframe, however we should expect a rally beforehand, here’s why: traders who were originally long at the aforementioned daily demand area have now likely been stopped out (if their stops were too close), these orders are now sells, pro money cannot sell into sells!!! They need buy orders to do that. So, they will likely buy into all these sell orders enticing traders to buy also, all the while pro money will be selling in small chunks to everyone buying, this could very well last all the way up to the daily D/S flip area at 1.34760-1.35265 until a sell-off is seen down to the area of interest just mentioned above.
The 4hr demand area at 1.33984-1.34404 that was neatly located within daily demand at 1.33984-1.34397 has obviously also been consumed south too. We have also just seen price just close below the round number 1.34 as well. Take a look to the far left under the aforementioned 4hr demand area, we see consumed demand, the spikes/tails were no doubt sent to consume buyers on the initial rally north, but all the while they were also clearing the path down to at least the 1.32758 level where it is likely fresh buy orders are sitting are sitting on this timeframe.
Could price just drop straight to this 4hr level of interest? Of course it could, but in our experience it is unlikely as already explained above with the daily timeframe scenario, pro money sellers cannot sell into sells! So, a reversal is likely. We have three areas of 4hr supply above that may see a reaction if price reaches there. The first being the lowest at 1.34428-1.34305 may well be the area as this was the overall place where pro money sellers made the decision to push below the aforementioned 4hr demand area. The two areas of 4hr supply above (1.34760-1.34943…1.35286-1.35211) are very interesting as these are sitting in and around a daily D/S flip area at 1.34760-1.35265, so we intend to be watching these levels carefully over the next few days.
Pending/P.A confirmation orders:
• No pending buy orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.
• No P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.
• Pending sell orders (Green line) are seen just below a decision-point area (1.35286-1.35211) at 1.35194, as we believe this area to be good for a bounce at the very least, notice how this was the area pro money sellers likely made the decision to break the round number 1.35000, meaning there may very well be unfilled sell orders still there.
• Pending sell orders (Green line) are seen just below the D/S flip area (1.34760-1.34943) at 1.34753.The reasoning behind setting a pending sell order here was because this is the area we believe on this timeframe pro money sellers made the decision to push prices south into 4hr demand at 1.33984-1.34404, meaning there may well be unfilled sell orders still lurking there.
• New pending sell orders (Green line) are seen just below a decision-point area (1.34428-1.34305) at 1.34266. The reasoning behind placing a pending sell order here is because this was the likely area pro money made the decision to break below 4hr demand at 1.33984-1.34404, meaning there may well be unfilled sell orders still lurking there.
• No P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.
The higher-timeframe picture resembles the following:
• Weekly timeframe: Price is now firmly trading within weekly demand at 1.32940-1.34847 with buyers showing very little interest at the moment.
• Daily timeframe: The daily demand area at 1.33984-1.34397 has seen a small break below no doubt triggering stops in the process. Prices may now be forced to test our daily area of interest below at 1.33559 on this timeframe, however we should expect a rally beforehand, here’s why: traders who were originally long at the aforementioned daily demand area have now likely been stopped out (if their stops were too close), these orders are now sells, pro money cannot sell into sells!!! They need buy orders to do that. So, they will likely buy into all these sell orders enticing traders to buy also, all the while pro money will be selling in small chunks to everyone buying, this could very well last all the way up to the daily D/S flip area at 1.34760-1.35265 until a sell-off is seen down to the area of interest just mentioned above.
The 4hr demand area at 1.33984-1.34404 that was neatly located within daily demand at 1.33984-1.34397 has obviously also been consumed south too. We have also just seen price just close below the round number 1.34 as well. Take a look to the far left under the aforementioned 4hr demand area, we see consumed demand, the spikes/tails were no doubt sent to consume buyers on the initial rally north, but all the while they were also clearing the path down to at least the 1.32758 level where it is likely fresh buy orders are sitting are sitting on this timeframe.
Could price just drop straight to this 4hr level of interest? Of course it could, but in our experience it is unlikely as already explained above with the daily timeframe scenario, pro money sellers cannot sell into sells! So, a reversal is likely. We have three areas of 4hr supply above that may see a reaction if price reaches there. The first being the lowest at 1.34428-1.34305 may well be the area as this was the overall place where pro money sellers made the decision to push below the aforementioned 4hr demand area. The two areas of 4hr supply above (1.34760-1.34943…1.35286-1.35211) are very interesting as these are sitting in and around a daily D/S flip area at 1.34760-1.35265, so we intend to be watching these levels carefully over the next few days.
Pending/P.A confirmation orders:
• No pending buy orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.
• No P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.
• Pending sell orders (Green line) are seen just below a decision-point area (1.35286-1.35211) at 1.35194, as we believe this area to be good for a bounce at the very least, notice how this was the area pro money sellers likely made the decision to break the round number 1.35000, meaning there may very well be unfilled sell orders still there.
• Pending sell orders (Green line) are seen just below the D/S flip area (1.34760-1.34943) at 1.34753.The reasoning behind setting a pending sell order here was because this is the area we believe on this timeframe pro money sellers made the decision to push prices south into 4hr demand at 1.33984-1.34404, meaning there may well be unfilled sell orders still lurking there.
• New pending sell orders (Green line) are seen just below a decision-point area (1.34428-1.34305) at 1.34266. The reasoning behind placing a pending sell order here is because this was the likely area pro money made the decision to break below 4hr demand at 1.33984-1.34404, meaning there may well be unfilled sell orders still lurking there.
• No P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.
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