EURUSD: Is it profitable to buy or sell?

The EURUSD pair is currently undergoing a retracement phase while still maintaining its uptrend on the H4 timeframe. At the moment, the price is testing a key support level at 1.0450, a critical point that could determine the next move. If this level holds, the pair could resume its upward momentum, targeting higher levels. Conversely, a break below this support may trigger increased selling pressure. However, the EMA 34 and EMA 89 remain supportive, indicating that caution is required given the current market volatility.

Key News Factors Impacting EURUSD
Beyond technical factors, EURUSD is heavily influenced by global economic and political developments. One major factor is the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, which continues to fuel uncertainty across global financial markets. In such an environment, USD strengthens as a safe-haven asset, potentially limiting EURUSD’s upside potential.

In addition to geopolitical risks, investors are closely watching the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes. While the Fed remains committed to a cautious monetary policy, weaker-than-expected U.S. retail sales data has increased speculation about a potential rate cut in 2025. If the Fed adopts a more dovish stance in the upcoming meetings, the USD could weaken, allowing EURUSD to rebound. However, if the Fed remains hawkish, downward pressure on the pair is likely to intensify.

Trading Strategy – Opportunities & Risks
Buy Strategy: Enter long positions from the inner boundary of the trend channel or on a break above 1.0500, targeting 1.0600, with a stop loss at 1.0366.
Sell Strategy: Short the pair if price breaks below 1.0450, aiming for 1.0410, with a stop loss at 1.0480.

Regardless of the strategy chosen, risk management and staying updated on economic events remain crucial. Market sentiment can shift quickly due to Fed policies or any major geopolitical developments. Always stay informed to make the most accurate trading decisions!