EURUSD Long all the way
Looking over the higher time frame, and using various looks, most all signs point to a higher price in the near future. I will be watching the 1.082 levels, looking for rejection before entry near the long tool. With the target at 1.11315, outlook to 1.115, there is plenty of room for reward to make sure of a good entry. I want to make sure we have some reaction off a lower level around the 1.082 level. Fib tool shows 1.19, but I don't quite think we will reach that, with what is here just yet.
On the daily, we are traveling through an uptrend since October. The pull down from the 1.09 level down into 1.06 was the pull back to that move. When you use a fib retrace tool, the bottom of the pull back lines up close with a 61% level, with follow through of the 78% level being a good sign the trend will push on. Once the rejection finishes from the last touch of the 4 hour level, entry can be taken with the confidence price will push through and onward. There is a strong uprising of price at a very sharp angle off the lowest levels of the beginning of this current move, which will help carry on the move once it subsides off the retracement.
A break below the 1.08 level is a good indicator the idea will be no good, and could start back down, making a double top off the 4 hour from recent times. The level has been challenged before, and the recent touches have worn into the level enough to where another visit from below could break through it fairly easily, especially if it gains momentum off the open of the week.
Long term target is 1.115, near the last flip zone support/resistance. Peak of this move should be 1.19, lining up with the 1.61 level on the Fib tool. May retrace from the 1.115 level back, or we could go even higher, but as of now, I think that price will run up through the 1.095 and continue on without much trouble, but once the 1.11 gets near, we could start to see some sharp rejection then.
Determined by a seemingly incoherent mess, so not posting that chart, it has about 100 lines on it, but it held strong all month of march, so I will continue to build on it through this month until it stops working. Other tools line up similar so using those instead to explain the whys.
Looking from just a basic standpoint, we have a price action set for a possible range or retreat. The ultimate confirmation would be a rejection of the top breakout line we passed to the 4 hour level last week, and I expect that to happen around 1.082. Then continue up and break the 4 hour and wait for retest there. With the target far away, it would be safe to wait for that for more certainty. I will be taking a market 1.082 range entry. If it gets stopped out after the confirm of reaction, I will stay long and look for another entry, but look at small target shorts, as we could trace back to the 61% fib level, then go up again (Seen it on the EUR too many times, fake out on fib), so until we break the 61% on the daily, I'm looking for longs ultimately in the long term.
Short term, the breakout line may become a new downtrend top line for a temporary short move, so that could provide some intraday and swing opportunity, but I don't expect something like that to carry on for very long if it does.
Entry will be made on some confirmation, blind entry usually results in a stop out and then target, so I want to be sure the level has some observance and sign of commitment before entry to minimize risk on the entry point. Trail stop will be used, so may not make the target if we get strong rejection again from the 4 hour level, but I will be looking for another long entry at another respected level for long should that happen. Expecting this to be the most likely outcome
On the daily, we are traveling through an uptrend since October. The pull down from the 1.09 level down into 1.06 was the pull back to that move. When you use a fib retrace tool, the bottom of the pull back lines up close with a 61% level, with follow through of the 78% level being a good sign the trend will push on. Once the rejection finishes from the last touch of the 4 hour level, entry can be taken with the confidence price will push through and onward. There is a strong uprising of price at a very sharp angle off the lowest levels of the beginning of this current move, which will help carry on the move once it subsides off the retracement.
A break below the 1.08 level is a good indicator the idea will be no good, and could start back down, making a double top off the 4 hour from recent times. The level has been challenged before, and the recent touches have worn into the level enough to where another visit from below could break through it fairly easily, especially if it gains momentum off the open of the week.
Long term target is 1.115, near the last flip zone support/resistance. Peak of this move should be 1.19, lining up with the 1.61 level on the Fib tool. May retrace from the 1.115 level back, or we could go even higher, but as of now, I think that price will run up through the 1.095 and continue on without much trouble, but once the 1.11 gets near, we could start to see some sharp rejection then.
Determined by a seemingly incoherent mess, so not posting that chart, it has about 100 lines on it, but it held strong all month of march, so I will continue to build on it through this month until it stops working. Other tools line up similar so using those instead to explain the whys.
Looking from just a basic standpoint, we have a price action set for a possible range or retreat. The ultimate confirmation would be a rejection of the top breakout line we passed to the 4 hour level last week, and I expect that to happen around 1.082. Then continue up and break the 4 hour and wait for retest there. With the target far away, it would be safe to wait for that for more certainty. I will be taking a market 1.082 range entry. If it gets stopped out after the confirm of reaction, I will stay long and look for another entry, but look at small target shorts, as we could trace back to the 61% fib level, then go up again (Seen it on the EUR too many times, fake out on fib), so until we break the 61% on the daily, I'm looking for longs ultimately in the long term.
Short term, the breakout line may become a new downtrend top line for a temporary short move, so that could provide some intraday and swing opportunity, but I don't expect something like that to carry on for very long if it does.
Entry will be made on some confirmation, blind entry usually results in a stop out and then target, so I want to be sure the level has some observance and sign of commitment before entry to minimize risk on the entry point. Trail stop will be used, so may not make the target if we get strong rejection again from the 4 hour level, but I will be looking for another long entry at another respected level for long should that happen. Expecting this to be the most likely outcome
Trade active
Market order taken, stop at 1.078, entry at 1.0859Note
Very strong rejection on the drop, almost like snapping a runner band, is why I took the market entry then. Lot of buying going on here it seems as well, as price is following upNote
Checking the 1 minute chart, perfect entry into a demand zone, stop to 1.0802 under the reaction, it doesn't go from here, look out from below for anotherNote
Look good as far as what's here now, support on daily pivot point support at 1.081, and we really didn't punch through the level, so expecting a push up soon for those reasonsTrade closed: stop reached
First trade stop hit, -14.4 pips, watch for it to go short, so look at lower levels. I love the razor stops, may have to go scalping 🐒 be the first YouTube video maybe 🤔Trade active
1.08071 new entry, use 1.079 for stopNote
What just happened: there was a break and retest of a 1-15 minute trend line that rejected the one minute, created a level, retested and now is rejected thatNote
Engulf, retest, engulf on the 5 minute is a great signNote
One thing to keep in mind... It's a new month, and the end of the month ended at a Friday, so people who take out for the weekend, plus the ones who do month to month also remove. It did not plummet, which makes me really suspect all the shorting right now is just people not paying attention to this little detail.Note
Setting the target to 1.0912 on this one, then watch a pullback to attack againNote
Retest that strong rejection level at the entry, coming out of a channel up, so price action says new extreme should be the other way (up after)Note
Entry level is confirming as a new level, and showing as a 5 minute demand zone just below priceNote
That new level is also a 38 Fib retracement. Trade still active.Note
Lot of reasons to stay long, with a lot of smaller levels around this area, we really had a great pullback off the bottom of the last one we rushed back up here from, it's rather straight line, and I've seen the first few hours of the EUR usually do not have much indication on the days direction. I've been trapped switching bias many times because of the way it is behaving now, but overall, I don't see much reason to switch. I f trade does get stopped, I will wait to make sure we have a confirmed return back up before making a new entryNote
1.07798* stop add 10 pips just for all of the factors in play with the new data points formedNote
One other last note, There is MASSIVE divergence in the shorter time frames, which at a minimum usually will show a change of character coming, so I don't think we're too colose to breaking this idea just yetNote
Zoom out to look at just the top and uptrend line, and you see the triangle danielrrbhmg is referring to. By scale, this is a typical fake out distance, and the retest for it is my target coincidentally 😀Note
Just going to let it ride, dusting off the no spread scalping technique for lives tomorrow, youtube is approving me, 23 hours to go.As far as how the behavior looks, the stall is very promising it will turn here
Note
Stop moved into profit, 1.0847, target is not far to goTrade closed: target reached
104 pip Gain, position closed at 1.09120Note
Mechanical divergence off the trendline that reached the target, watch for a pullback to re-enter lowerNote
Expecting price to retraceto the end of the day (reactions from the 4 hour level touch, and the multi day triangle pattern shows as a retest and drop. This run was like the last, fairly straightforward. The second rejection is off the major trend line, also a sign for short, but looking at the overall picture, I think this is meant to get traders who are looking too closely.1.083 is where I'm expecting it to happen. We have a level that is important, but for the most part ignored on the way up, and most times, this level gains a grip after it gets ignored like that. It also lines out with the breakout line from a few days ago. The run across it before, I'm sure it's still in play as a watch point/divergence point.
Looking close (3-5 days), we're looking short, but looking since October last year, I don't think it's done, just taking a break.
We'll drop back after open or close to the end of the day, then head back to punch through tomorrow. Lot of short term looks will help make it happen, but the long term and month to month traders I expect to be waiting there to re enter as well (common rule is don't trade Monday or Friday) so bigger players may have stayed out of it yesterday and want back in tomorrow on new positions
One other thought train is the ones who got in last week on the run up may also be looking at the failed break on the 4 hour (looking at it closely) and may take their positions out, then the restes triangle traders may see the drop and jump on, helping price get back down there for us
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Yup, I see it 🧐 we react from the 1.083, I suspect that will drive it to 1.101, that will be the second leg of the tradeNote
More alignment on the idea: we have a solid demand zone from 1.083-1.0838, and I expect the open to ease down right into that area and we'll be back on our way. Once there is confirmed attention to the demand level and the other elements in that spot, it would be an excellent high probability entry to get back inNote
Late to the party buyers are going to give the ones who got in from 1.074 and this move the price they want if they didn't target an exit at the level. These traders will probably wait until open, then then take profits, starting our ease down to the demand zone later in the dayNote
Market behavior alignment presents a possible short opportunity I was referring to. I'll make a sub idea for that, as it will be a counter idea trade. Looking at all factors and the potential pattern line up and potentially completing below gives a nice area to try and exploit while waiting for the second leg to get set up.
I'll set up the sub idea in a bit because phone charts just look terrible 😔, and I don't expect it to go wild after open being so close to other points of interest from both sides. It stalls at the end of every day, then I think we'll drift up, and when it clearly rejects, it leaves the gap to the next entry wide open for a short into 1.084, about 2.5-3 r worth with an entry near the level
Note
Was expecting the news to finish bringing this one down to us, but all hope is gone on that one. Things have shifted slightly, I'll make a clean idea for the next trade
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.