EURUSD at a Tipping Point: Explosive Breakout or Breakdown?

Aug 15

Is the EURUSD on the verge of a major breakout, or are we heading for another disappointing retreat?


Once again, we’re sitting above the 1.10 zone, and the price has moved into the upper range territory. Since early 2023, EURUSD has been stuck in a weekly range between 1.05 and 1.104, with only one quick rally to 1.12 that was quickly faded.


Are we finally ready to see a clear breakout higher, or will the price fail again and fall back into the range? Let's take a closer look at what the charts are indicating.


Zooming into the daily charts, we can see the range more clearly. Yesterday, the price spiked up to create a new high for the year before quickly selling off (see image below).





Shifting to the 4-hour charts and adding the MACD indicator, a clear bearish SELL signal has appeared, indicating that buying momentum is beginning to fade. Given the HTF price zone we’re in, a sell-off to at least 1.093 seems likely.





Now, I’m waiting for my TRFX indicator to give a sell signal on the 2-hour or 4-hour timeframe.


The first target for this position is 1.093. I’ll then re-analyze the price action at that level. If selling momentum picks up, a deeper correction toward the bottom of the range could be on the cards. My stop loss will be set above 1.11.


This week's WEEKLY candle close will be crucial. If we get a clear break and close above 1.105, a move up to 1.12 is highly likely. I’ll be closely watching for any reaction to the US GDP today.


If the above scenario plays out, I will shift my strategy from selling to buying on any short-term retrace to 1.105, targeting 1.12.


For now, it's a short setup until the market indicates otherwise.


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