EUR/USD: Technical outlook and review...
Despite the fact that Greek voters rejected austerity this weekend, the EUR/USD pair recovered well during yesterday’s trade, resulting in price filling the 120-pip weekend gap, which, as you can see, just missed connecting with the 1.1100 handle. This rebound may reflect hope that the Greek government can finally reach a deal with its creditors.
Technically, we can see that price remains mid-range on the weekly timeframe between 1.1532-1.1278 – a weekly supply area, and 1.0519-1.0798 – a weekly demand zone. Meanwhile on the daily scale, price is seen holding nicely above daily demand at 1.0886-1.0978 with room seen above for further buying. Personally, we’re not convinced by yesterday’s surge north, and even though this pair currently boasts demand from the daily chart, we do not see the EUR getting above 1.1100/1.1111, based on the fear plaguing this market that the ‘no’ vote could backfire on the Greeks. If price does manage to trade higher, however, we see price only reaching as far as the 4hr supply at 1.1171-1.1147 for the following reasons:
1. Take a look across to the daily chart; you may be able to see that this 4hr area of supply lines up nicely with a daily swap level 1.1148.
2. The 4hr supply area contains the magic Fibonacci retracement number 0.618.
3. The 4hr supply zone is also supported by the mid-level number 1.1150, which as most already know are often reactive points in this market.
With all of the above taken into consideration, we’re going to keep an eye on the 1.1100/1.1111 region and the aforementioned 4hr supply zone seen above it for potential (confirmed) shorting opportunities today. Targets will of course depend on the approach to each zone.
Levels to watch/live orders:
• Buys: Flat (Stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: 1.1100/1.1111 [Tentative – confirmation required (Stop loss: dependent on where one confirms this level) 1.1171-1.1147 [Tentative – confirmation required (Stop loss: 1.1174).
Technically, we can see that price remains mid-range on the weekly timeframe between 1.1532-1.1278 – a weekly supply area, and 1.0519-1.0798 – a weekly demand zone. Meanwhile on the daily scale, price is seen holding nicely above daily demand at 1.0886-1.0978 with room seen above for further buying. Personally, we’re not convinced by yesterday’s surge north, and even though this pair currently boasts demand from the daily chart, we do not see the EUR getting above 1.1100/1.1111, based on the fear plaguing this market that the ‘no’ vote could backfire on the Greeks. If price does manage to trade higher, however, we see price only reaching as far as the 4hr supply at 1.1171-1.1147 for the following reasons:
1. Take a look across to the daily chart; you may be able to see that this 4hr area of supply lines up nicely with a daily swap level 1.1148.
2. The 4hr supply area contains the magic Fibonacci retracement number 0.618.
3. The 4hr supply zone is also supported by the mid-level number 1.1150, which as most already know are often reactive points in this market.
With all of the above taken into consideration, we’re going to keep an eye on the 1.1100/1.1111 region and the aforementioned 4hr supply zone seen above it for potential (confirmed) shorting opportunities today. Targets will of course depend on the approach to each zone.
Levels to watch/live orders:
• Buys: Flat (Stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: 1.1100/1.1111 [Tentative – confirmation required (Stop loss: dependent on where one confirms this level) 1.1171-1.1147 [Tentative – confirmation required (Stop loss: 1.1174).
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