Quarterly Overview - EUR/USD 1D Chart
2017 Q2 Summary
There was a large flaw in the forecast for the previous quarter. It was made too modest by our analysts. The direction and movements of the next two months were precise. However, our team did not look deep enough into the possible movements in the second part of May and June. The goals were surpassed by more than 300 base points, as the common European currency managed to surge above the drawn trend lines in the borders of a then not described massive scale descending channel pattern. The pair surged up to the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement level, which is located at the 1.13 mark . The EUR/USD pair touched the retracement and began a rebound. However, then Mario Draghi opened his mouth on June 28. Due to his comments the common European currency skyrocketed more than 200 base points against the US Dollar.
2017 Q3 Outlook
It was initially forecasted and fully technically confirmed that the common European currency will lose value against the US Dollar in a medium and long term descending pattern. However, the basis of the whole monetary system changed, when Mario Draghi gave a few speeches and comments during the European Central Bank Forum in Portugal. Basically, what Mario Draghi said was that the QE programme will end, as the inflation targets have been reached. In other words, the European Central Bank will stop “printing money” via buying assets that have nothing to do with the initial mandate of the central bank and thus “stimulating the economy” by creating the targeted 2% inflation. Due to that reason it can be expected that the currency exchange rates, which involve the Euro are set to surge. That will occur due to a lesser influx of the currency into the markets, making the existing money worth more.
There was a large flaw in the forecast for the previous quarter. It was made too modest by our analysts. The direction and movements of the next two months were precise. However, our team did not look deep enough into the possible movements in the second part of May and June. The goals were surpassed by more than 300 base points, as the common European currency managed to surge above the drawn trend lines in the borders of a then not described massive scale descending channel pattern. The pair surged up to the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement level, which is located at the 1.13 mark . The EUR/USD pair touched the retracement and began a rebound. However, then Mario Draghi opened his mouth on June 28. Due to his comments the common European currency skyrocketed more than 200 base points against the US Dollar.
2017 Q3 Outlook
It was initially forecasted and fully technically confirmed that the common European currency will lose value against the US Dollar in a medium and long term descending pattern. However, the basis of the whole monetary system changed, when Mario Draghi gave a few speeches and comments during the European Central Bank Forum in Portugal. Basically, what Mario Draghi said was that the QE programme will end, as the inflation targets have been reached. In other words, the European Central Bank will stop “printing money” via buying assets that have nothing to do with the initial mandate of the central bank and thus “stimulating the economy” by creating the targeted 2% inflation. Due to that reason it can be expected that the currency exchange rates, which involve the Euro are set to surge. That will occur due to a lesser influx of the currency into the markets, making the existing money worth more.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.