EURUSD MTF Cloud Assessment

Longer Term - The EURUSD made a H&S formation from July 1020 till August 2021 on the weekly chart. From there a downtrend has been evident.

Supporting Bearish Ichimoku signs

1. Future Kumo - there is a twist on 24/01/22 as blue skies become dark clouds.
2. TK Dead Cross on 02/08/2021
3. Chikou Span - below price on 05/04/2021. Breaks below the Kumo 24/05/21.
4. Price below Present Kumo - a confirmed weekly candle below Kumo on 808/11/2021.


Current Ichimoku signs

1. Future Kumo - is thick and grey.
2. Present Kumo - is miles away ( 1.1450)
3. TK - the Tenkan Sen continues to closely follow price , which currently has retested 1.0640. The Kijun Sen offers continued resistance.
4. Chikou Span - below Kumo and price. There is ample air between Chikou and Current Close (18 weeks) .
5. Price - below Kumo and TK.

The downtrend has periods of rapid price fall followed by consolidation. Both prior consolidation periods have been 11 weeks . The current consolidation has been present for 5 weeks.
If the pace of the downtrend continues, maybe this pair is in consolidation for another 6 weeks.

Some suggest this pair is headed for Parity. Just maybe , the year 2000 low of .82 should be considered.

Medium Term - Price has been in consolidation from 13th May 2022 till now.

1. Future Kumo - is flat , reflecting the consolidation. The SSA has not crossed below recent low (1.0560)

2. Present Kumo = is thick with near term resistance at 1.0570 (SSA) and further resistance at 1.0670 (SSB)

3. TK Cross - there has been a Golden Cross on 27/05/2022 and a Dead Cross on the 15/06/2022. This will likely repeat many times over the coming weeks.

4. Chikou Span - is weaving above and below price , and this too reflects range activity.

5. Price - below Kumo and TK

The price range is Price is now in range from 1.0350 to 1.0790.

Short Term - Price is in consolidation

1. Future Kumo - is grey , flat and thick with resistance at 1.0570.
2. Present Kumo- is grey , flat and thin with resistance at 1.0585
3. TK Cross - there have been 3 Dead Crosses and 2 Golden Crosses . Price is in a range , and we can expect many crosses in the coming weeks.
4. Chikou Span - is very close to the price action and can easily move above or below price.
5. Price = below Kumo but at TK.


The cloud analysis would suggest if you are a long term trader , presently you would look for a retracement to the Tenkan Sen ( 1.0650) or Kijun Sen ( 1.0930) before looking for a short trade.

If you are a medium term trend trader , you will likely be out of the market for a few weeks , as price consolidates over June/July 2022. The break of 1.0350 on the daily / weekly chart would be of interest. Cloud analysis is of little value in a range environment.

For the short term trader , the present range high provides short opportunities at 1.0790.

With all 3 time frames moving from Bearish to Flat , the direction of trade would favour the downside.