EURUSD and its coming movements

Jun 5, 2016

Hi fellow traders,

Fascinating wise has EUR moved forward vs USD last Friday due to bad NFP released data from USA. Its moving forward has reached the upper zone channel level and probably is now in the upward movements to reach the price level at 1.160xx.
My trading plan for EURUSD is described on this chart, just take a look at it for your reference and consideration.
Personally I will do both long and short, in which at every retracement thereof I will short EU and then long, if the price action would act as planned.
According to my point of view EURUSD in a upward trend has mostly performed with failures recently, therefore a smoothly upward in the current situation of hiking rate intention from Fed in June can push the upward momentum of EURUSD slower. Hence trade with care with this pair for this year.
I will follow up with you with this pair in the coming days.

Notes: I will wake up earlier tomorrow by the Asia session and ...wait to short EU at first, take your look at each retracement but as said, it will be my own trading plan for both long and short.

Trade well!

m2m

Jun 6, 2016

Note

EURUSD has made a retracement but anyway the retracement seems to be not able to reach my expecting level at fibs retracement 0.382@1.12884-1.12887, therefore let's say that the second waves seems to be not exist, or exists at the level of 0.232@ 1.1320, which was last week. Now there can be following scenarios for EURUSD:
1) It will closed above 1.13483 and does not make a new lower lows, thus EURUSD will pop up and reach the extension level @0.618-0.786@1.1430-1.1446 and from there it will make a retracement;
2) The second wave was yet at the level 0.232@ around 1.1320 and from now EUR will pop up to perform its third wave ( how much time it will consume and be noted that it is not a must that the third wave has to be performed successfully);
3) The level at 1.13483 can not be broken in the beginning of Europa session and EUR will make a new lows at our expected level of fibs@0.382 and from there the price raise.
So we are waiting for price action( my short today was closed with around 20 pips lol )

Jun 6, 2016

Trade active

The 1st Scenario seems to be the correct one and I decide to enter my long position from here.
My s/l for that is just 25 pips and t/p at 1.1437( but can be a little bit less, pls take note that it wuld be such as an extension trading, the price will pop up very quickly but then falls like a stone, so trade with care, if you join.


Note: COT confirming that traders continued net long with the greenbacks

Trade well

Jun 6, 2016

Note

My long enter position for EURUSD was 1.13510 and I prefer and adhere to hold EURUSD today, despite of what Yellen will speak laterly, but my first target will be around the round number 1.14000.

Just risk 25 pips, or win around 55 pips.

Trade well and be careful with the price action and below is the news for you, check the link below:
reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-yellen-idUSKCN0YS142

m2m

Jun 7, 2016

Trade closed: target reached

Yesterday EURUSD did make a new highs and it was around the round number 1.1400( 1.13925) and I did close my position manually.
Whether EURUSD will still go to the direction as planned, we have to wait and watch at the coming price action.

Jun 8, 2016

Trade active

I did reenter my trade for EU again and put my t/p around at 1.1437 as an extension. The sideways took quite much time, namely it consumes 2 days and 14hours to breakout the range.

Jun 9, 2016

Trade closed manually

My long trade for EU was manually closed with a smaller profit and as we see that the level of fibs 61.8 was as a strong resistance and the extension was not reached.

Jun 9, 2016

Trade active

Just short EU at the level of 1.13595. t/p 60 pips and s/l 30 pips.

Jun 9, 2016

Note

It looks good now that EURUSD slowly gets back to the lowest drawn trendline channel at the round number of 1.1300, or might be some pips more or less.
If the markets move, then we have a chance to guess where will the markets go, else difficult to guess. Keep patience is very important in such situation.

Trade well!

m2m

Jun 9, 2016

Note

I will move my long position to the entry level, when the current candle or the next ones ( 1-3 candles more) closed below the level 1.1323.
T/p will be as planned.

Jun 9, 2016

Note

Guys, the last candle at H1 was closed quasi a bit above the level 1.1323, anyway we can move the position now to the entry point ( take some pips +).
Enjoin your journey!

Jun 9, 2016

Trade closed manually

I did close my short trade from now.
I will update further possible trade with EU on time.

Jun 20, 2016

Note

Due to Brexit referendum this week, I prefer to make a pause for this week because of the gaps are mostly quite large and it is not really suitable for a technical analysis during this time to update.