Euro / U.S. Dollar
Short

A second chance entry on a high probability structure setup

66
Yesterday I posted an idea for a High Probability Market Structure Setup (Short) on EUR/USD.

Here

Based on market structure statistics, we observe that the last internal low has a 69% probability of being broken - providing very favorable probabilities for short biased trades.

The move kicked off with the smallest of inducements (smaller than we were expecting) and many may have missed the entry.

This idea provides a second chance entry level to take advantage of the statistical advantage we have on this trade.

Here are the details:

The level we can look to short from is the 1- VWAP (anchored to prior internal low) and 2- The LVN (low volume node) in the volume profile for the last push to the upside.

The confluence of these two factors make this level a high probability entry area to take advantage of further downside.

You can play this entry two ways:

1- Risk entry right on the level

2- Confirmation entry:
Drop down to a 5 or 15 minute timeframe and wait for the first bearish imbalance (Fair Value Gap). Set a limit entry order on that FVG, with your stop just above the high preceding the FVG.

If you choose a Risk entry, you'll have to consider a wider stop - which I'd recommend is near the SD1 band of the VWAP (first band above the vwap).

However, even with that wide of a stop, you still have a very favorable risk to reward as we're playing a break of the prior internal low.

Trade smart,

Cheers!

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