1. Market Structure: The chart shows GBP/JPY in a bearish trend, which is apparent from the price's decline over the past few weeks. The price seems to be approaching a potential support zone, as indicated by the horizontal lines. You are likely considering either a potential bounce from this level or a continuation of the bearish trend.
2. Trade Setup: Buy Plan (Upward Arrow):
You seem to anticipate that the price may first move upward after reaching the current support level. The first target would likely be the area around 192.83 - 194.86 (marked by the purple resistance zone). This is likely a retracement or bounce play as the market is oversold on the RSI indicator, with RSI hovering near 38, which may indicate a reversal or pullback to the upside. Sell Plan (Downward Arrow):
Once the price reaches the resistance zone near 192-194, the sell plan would come into play if the resistance holds. The second downward arrow indicates a potential major selloff after this resistance, possibly down to the 179.87 level. This looks like a continuation of the broader bearish trend after a corrective move up. 3. Key Levels: Support Level: Around 184.83, which appears to be the level where you anticipate a bounce for the buy entry. Resistance Level: Between 192.83 - 194.86, which is the region where you would look to either take profit on the long position or set up a short trade. Profit Targets: Long trade profit target: Around 192-194. Short trade profit target: Near 181.93 or lower, around 179.87. 4. Indicators: RSI: The RSI shows an oversold condition, indicating a possible temporary relief rally, supporting the idea of a short-term bounce before continuing the downtrend. Conclusion: Your plan seems to involve two potential plays:
Buying around 184.83, aiming for a retracement toward the resistance around 192.83-194.86. Selling at the resistance level, aiming for a larger bearish move toward 181.93 or even down to 179.87 if the price fails to break through the resistance. This strategy takes into account both a short-term reversal and the broader bearish trend.
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