GC / Gold / XAUUSD 1hr narrative for 17-Jun

Jun 16, 2024

We are in a range since the 10th of June.

We never trade in the middle of the range.

We can see that price is consolidating and preparing for expansion.

I would look for a short at the top of the range after a bullish sweep (also referred to as manipulation) and then anticipate price to go lower.

However, as this range has seen a lot of volume, the bears may not have much momentum before the bulls get in the driving seat.


Note to self and every deliberate and disciplined trader.

Don't long at the top of the range, even if ti feels tempting. Similarly, don't short at the bottom of the range if you don't want to become liquidity.

Let price show its hand. The higher time market structure clearly tells us we are bullish. Be conservative, don't try to short when the overall structure remains agressively bullish.

Honour your experience, if you don't know what to do, or feel confused, SIT ON YOUR HANDS. Doing nothing will make you money.

It is very likelyt that price will attempt to breach the ATH.

Have patience, wait for retracements before entering into bullish trades.

FOMO = Losing money.

Know your reptilian impulses, witness them, for it is only you, the beautiful human who is capable of looking at the workings of your own brain.

Jun 16, 2024

Note

So now, if we do some narrative building:

On the 4hr HTF, there was a 2nd tap and price went higher, we expect some retracement.
On the 1hr HTF, we know that we are in a range and near the Top of the Range.
On the 15m, we know we have a weak low and expect it to run the high that put it.

I don't predict anything longer - I don't know if price will go for the ATHs again. Everything seems aggressively bullish with liquidity being gathered near an important HTF low. We are in the Supply & Demand Zone that was responsible for these ATH, so it is a strong area.

Does this mean it will hold or will it get breached because we the buyers want lower prices? We don't know and we don't predict - we just follow price, take small chunks and surf the waves.